Thursday, October 1, 2009

'SPY Gopher' generated an Exit Signal for Thursday's Close, 10/1/2009



  • 'SPY Gopher' got caught in today's bear raid...while up nearly 2.00% earlier in the week, it closed out down 1.91% (modeled position: SPY) and down a theoretical 2.01% on the trading position (ESZ09)...
  • i say theoretical, because i did not follow the exit rules...as i mentioned yesterday, though bullish longer term on the ES and the NQ, the trading action was increasing my concern that the 1035-1065 base may not hold today....i was long 4 ESZ09 contracts, and sold 1 yesterday at 1056.50 and three more today around 3:40 pm at an average of 1032, making my average exit for the 4 contracts 1038.13 (only 3 contracts are shown on the chart because the 4th contract is traded in another account) :



  • so while the theoretical trading position exit should have been at 1025.25 (4:00:00 pm price), the actual trading exit was at 1038.13...this exit, leads to a 0.78% trading loss (with commission) instead of the theoretical trading loss of 2.01%...in this case, acting on a reanalysis of the technicals and on fear saved me 1.23% on 4 ESZ09....
  • the model loss of 1.91% is slightly more than 1.77% average loss...
Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

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