US Dollar Index and Precious Metals update, Sunday 9/25/11

Back on 9/20/11, I wrote that recent history suggested that when the US Dollar Index, rallies, the SP500 trends sideways at best, and down at worst. At that time, the US Dollar Index was breaking out of a 6 month range.

Now the range break continue to the upside. I believe this strongly suggests that the SP500 will continue in its sideways range at best, or downtrend at worst.

Looking at the Precious Metals, GLD (gold ETF) suffered its largest weekly loss on a percentage basis in many years. At best, GLD remains in weekly uptrend.

SLV (silver ETF), suffered its second large weekly loss of the year. At best it is clinging on to a 7 month base, but that looks to be in jeapordy, and another downleg into the mid to low 20's might be upon us.

I am not sure how much of a relationship these two metals have with the US Dollar Index though.

Disclosure: No positions in the securities mentioned.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk...my positions my change at any time without notice***

The US Dollar Index is breaking out of it's recent range, but does it mean anything to the US Stock Market?

The US Dollar Index is breaking out of its recent range, but does that imply a high odds move in the SP500 in a specific direction?

When the US Dollar Index rallied from mid 2008 - early 2009, the SP500 (SPY as proxy), dropped. When the US Dollar Index rallied from late 2009 - mid 2010, the SP500 chopped sideways in a sloppy action. Now that the Dollar Index has broken out of 6 month range, if it begins to trend upward, does that portend sideways/downward action in the SP500?

Based on market behavior for the past 6 years or so, it does.

Disclosure: No Open positions in any of the securities mentioned.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk...my positions my change at any time without notice***