Articles of Interest, Friday 9/9/11

Stock Traders Almanac: Sector Seasonality is on Track

Todd Harrison: The Market is speaking, are you listening?  and this was written two weeks ago!

ECRI: WLI ticks up, but growth rate weakens

Stock Traders Almanac: Hemline Index still Bearish

ECRI hits it out of the park again...

Is it really different this time? A cyclical perspective

ECRI: "U.S. Economic Recovery is 'Far From Fragile'"

• sparked by worse than expected chicago pmi data, market participants on the whole are behaving pessimistically today...
• i continue to believe in the rally, and as noted below, have been a buyer of weakness...
• last week, ECRI said the following: U.S. Economic Recovery is 'Far From Fragile':
  

"A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth climbed higher in the latest
week, while its yearly growth rate reached a new all-time high, reaffirming
projections of a brisk, uninterrupted recovery..."

"...Last week, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters that the
group expects an "unstoppable" recovery with "no relevant roadblocks." Fears
over mounting unemployment, debt-laden consumers, and dips in recovery are
typical of recessionary times, he said.

"With WLI growth climbing to a fresh record high, the economic recovery is far from fragile," Achuthan said on Friday..."

Disclosure: Long NQZ09, Long ESZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

ECRI's WLI growth rate ratches up again

Economic Cycle Research Institute's news release: Though Analysts Clash, Firm U.S. Recovery at Hand

"...The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to 17.5 percent after hitting a 26-year high of 14.3 percent last week, which was also revised higher from 13.4 percent.

It was the highest yearly growth rate the index has seen since the week to July 29, 1983, when it was 17.8 percent.

"It is high time to break from the herd of pessimistic analysts, who will continue to bemoan economic weakness long after the Great Recession is history," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

Achuthan told Reuters last week that he expects the recovery to take hold at a stronger pace than any the U.S. has seen since the early 1980s..."

ECRI's WLI Growth rate runs up to a 26 year high.

Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth rate has run up to a 26 year high:

"...Meanwhile, the index's annualized growth rate leapt to a 26-year high of 13.4 percent from last week's five-year high of 10.4 percent, which ECRI originally reported at 10.5 percent.

It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to Aug. 26, 1983, when it stood at 13.9 percent.

"With WLI growth surging, the odds are rising that the early stage of this economic recovery will be stronger than any since the early 1980s," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

Achuthan recently told Reuters that the national recovery would be stronger than many expect, though signs of such strong growth will not be apparent until sometime next year..."

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1529/

http://www.businesscycle.com/

ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI) Growth Rate Rises Again

"Following a 28-week upturn, WLI growth has broken into positive territory for the first time in over 22 months -- an affirmation that an end to the recession is at hand," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1466/

http://www.businesscycle.com/home/

ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI) Growth Rate Rises

"With WLI growth rocketing up almost 30 percentage points in six months, it's virtually pounding the table about the recession ending this summer," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1461/

http://www.businesscycle.com/home/

ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

Though my daytrades can be measured in minutes/hours, and my swing trades can be measured in hours/days, and my investments can be measured in weeks/months, I still pay attention to the overall fundamental outlook of the US Economy.

I use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI: http://www.businesscycle.com/) to help form my longer term view of where I believe the US Stock Market is headed. ECRI updates the WLI with a free publicly available news release every Friday morning (http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/).

The premise of the WLI is that there is some economic data that sends signals (Leading Indicators) about upcoming economic activity that may suggest growth or contraction in the coming quarters. ECRI has built models with data that go back to the early 1900's, so the assumption is that the models are robust and contain not just a descriptive value of the current enviroment, but also a predictive value of the future environment. And isn't it the future that we as traders/investors are most interested in?

If you want to see what kind of economic growth may be ahead of us, then follow ECRI's WLI.