'NDX 1st DOM' stops out on the Open.

• 'NDX 1st DOM' got stopped out right at the open, primarily related to a worse than expected payrolls report that was treated negatively by the market (NDX)...
• the modeled position (NDX), took a 0.58% loss, slightly more than the theoretical 0.50% stop...this can happen when the vehicle gaps below the stop level...
• the trading position (NQZ09), took a 0.71% loss, moderately bigger than the modeled position...
• this is the fourth stop in a row for this model...the model is built on the premise that if the NDX is in an uptrend, and its the 1st calendar day of the month (not the first trading day of the month), then buy the NDX on the close of the 1st calendar day of the month and then sell it on the close of the following trading day...the tight stop assures that if the underlying uptrend does not kick in, then the loss is small...as can be seen from the equity curve above, this concept has proven to be robust since 1986...the key is defining the uptrend and using a tight stop...
• yesterday i was concerned that with current bearish short term sentiment, and the possibility of a worse than expected payrolls report being released pre-market, that the NDX could gap down much more than the 0.50% modeled stop loss...so instead of entering with a full size position (6 NQZ09), i only went in with a 50% position (3 NQZ09)...an analysis of market sentiment and the fear of losing more than the theoretical stop, led to reducing my position size...my concerns did play out, and i wound up losing less than the model, not because i got better fills but because my position size was smaller...
• the NQZ09 based stop was at 1657.00...the NQZ09 opened below that level, and i was filled at 1653.75...it quickly ran up and traded over 1657.00...i considered entering the second half the full position just above the stop of 1657.00...i did get back in around 1658.00 and used a tight stop of 1657...unfortunately the stop was hit, but the NQ went right back up and is now trading around 1665.00...
  

Disclosure: Long NQZ09 (via 'BTD Index' and a discretionary swing trade).

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***