10/20/2009 3 pm update: NQ, ES

• NQ and ES bouncing up off lunch time low...
• after closing two profitable swing trades during the overnight and pre-day session, my entries for the next swing have not been good...
• i was averaged in at 1756.63 with 2 contracts...
• around 2:30 pm, i sold 1 contract at 1753.00 to reduce my size and free up some capital...
• this trade: -3.63 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• today's trades: +3.88 NQ points/contract, 3 contracts closed...
• i can envision a further move down over the next few days...if this comes to pass, then i will add more NQ lower...
• currently bidding for 1 contract at 1741.50 (just above the rising 200ma on the 15M chart), and at 1727.50, which is just above the 1725ish pivot...
• offering out the current contract at 1766.50...
• though i am long 1 NQZ09, i want the NQ to selloff some more....

• this topping tail on the daily NQZ09 chart may get the bears all hot and bothered...i welcome it as an opportunity to get longer for the next swing high...
• if the NQ were to sell off hard, i would expect its next swing low to form in the 1690-1710 area...the longer the NQ bases, the higher i would expect the swing low to form....

• the ES broke broke above its upper trendline last wednesday...on thursday i suggested the ES was possibly putting in a short term top...
• since then the ES has been basing above the breakout level of 1075ish and below the whole number 1100...
• if the ES were to break below 1075ish and sell off hard, i would expect a swing low to be put in around the lower uptrend line, currently at 1035 and rising a few points each day...
• in my view, a critical number of portfolio managers are underinvested...the pm's underperformance relative to their benchmark (S&P 500), is putting a pretty good bid under the market...the 'fear of missing' psychology is very strong right now...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***