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- Dubai Debt Fears Hammer Stocks
- Dubai's Move on Debt Rattles Markets Worldwide
- who wants to trade on thanksgiving day? in order to manage risk, i had to...
- the money managment stop for the NQZ09 on my 'Turkey Long' model is 1749.00...however this stop is only good for the regular trading sessions of wed and fri of thanksgiving week, and on the following monday's open...
- well, upon seeing the dubai news and the major u.s. indices down around 2% on this thanksgiving morning, and recognizing that this type of headline has the capacity to get the bears all fired up, i called an audible and i sold my NQZ09 position (proxy for the 'Turkey Long' model) this morning at an avg price of 1760.58...
- this trade: -22.34 NQ points/contract, 3 contracts closed...
- the low of the wed night session in the NQ was 1746.50...if i was using overnight stops, i would have been stopped out at 1749.00...
- i am glad i closed my discretionary NQZ09 swing long yesterday...
- who knows how the NQ will trade during the regular friday day session...another headline release could come out and if percieved positiviely, could send the NQ back up to 1800...
- or another headline release could come out and if percieved negatively, could send the NQ down to 1700...
- in this environment, my sense is that the NQ may head lower...
- we shall see by monday's open if my early sale was prescient or stupid...
- since july, my systemic trading models have continued to fail, pushing their drawdown to 15+%...they performed exceedingly well during the 60% equity market collapse from the fall of 2007 through the spring of 2009...but since july, they have been awful and it has been a frustrating experience trading my systemic trading models...
- if the market continues to selloff, i will like to get back in for a discretionary swing trade...however, i do not know what level a selloff my bring the NQ down to, so right now i am not bidding for it...i will be watching though, and if i see a setup i like, i will begin to establish a discretionary swing long...
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***
- well its 3:15 on wednesday of thanksgiving week, and the major stock indices are green, with the mid caps (EMD) leading up around 1.00%, the small caps (TF) lagging up about 0.10%, ES up about 0.50% and the NQ up about 0.40%...
- the ES has been leading the charge lately, and continues to bang its head on the 1110ish resistance level, while the NQ made its high last wednesday around 1813 and is now having a hard time moving beyond the 1800 whole number...
- though the friday after thanksgiving tends to be bullish, i am long the NQ via two strategies (discretionary swing trade and 'Turkey Long')...i am concerned that if the ES can not break above 1110ish on friday, then the NQ may have already peaked...i want to reduce some exposure and lock in some gains, so instead of holding the discretionary swing trade until the offer of 1807.50 is hit, i decided to sell it today at 1794.00 into the end of day runup...
- this trade: +12.50 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
- i am still long 3 NQ contracts via the 'Turkey Long' model...if the money management stop is not hit, this trade is due to be exited on monday's open...however, if there is a big pop in the NQ on friday or during the sunday night session, i may scale out of it ahead of the monday morning model exit...
Disclosure: Long NQZ09.
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***
- first off, happy thanksgiving to all of my u.s based readers....
- my 'Turkey Long' systemic trading model generated a long entry at today's close in the NDX...
- this model is based on the NDX historical trading behavior surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday...
- the model goes long on the close of tuesday of thanksgiving week, and if the money management stop is not hit, then the model exits the trade on the following monday's open...
- currently the stop is around 2.00%, and may vary a bit as it is influenced by the recent average true volatitlity in the NDX...
- here are some performance stats for this model:
- Model Tracking Vehicle=NDX
- Start Date=11/1/1985
- Number of Trades=24
- Average Trade Return=1.39%
- Average Winning Trade Return=1.57%
- Average Losing Trade Return=-0.55%
- Win Rate=92%
- Ratio of Average Win/Average Loss (RAWAL)=2.87
- Profit Factor=31.55
- this model has been hugely profitable over its lifetime, though the last few years the model has essentially been flat...perhaps the bullish tendency of the trading days surrounding the thanksgiving holiday are so widely known, that a critical number of market participants act on this tendency before hand and the edge has been neutralized...
- in any case, i am long 3 NQZ09 contracts for this model...i picked up 2 of the contracts during the trading session, and picked up the third at the 4pm close...avg entry price is 1782.92
- as far as the discretionary swing trade in the NQZ09, i am still long 1 contract at 1781.50...
- i continue to offer this contract out at 1807.50...if the bullish tendency surrounding the thanksgiving holiday plays out, i believe there is a good chance this order will fill by monday morning...
- no bids for more of the NQ at this time...however, if there was a decent selloff over the next few days, i will probably pick some more of the NQ up...
Disclosure: Long NQZ09.
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***
- i added a NQZ09 contract at 1791.50 during the premarket selloff...
- long 2 NQZ09 @ avg 1800.25/contract...
- i am recognizing that i have a tendency to nearly always have some long exposure to the NQ...i think this stems from a 'fear of missing' pyschological mindset that gets applied to my NQ discretionary swing trading...i also think its related to my belief that i can work my avg price down sufficiently enough to weather an averaged size downdraft...
- but what if the downdraft is not average sized, or suggests that intermediate term trend is changing from up to sideways or even down?
- i believe i need to re-evaluate how i trade the NQ discretionary swing position when the NQ is trading near its upper trendline/resistance...
- i am open to the possibility of an end of year melt up in the NQ and the ES...
- i am also aware of the bullish thanksgiving seasonality for the NDX from the close of next tuesday thru the open of the following monday...i even have a systemic trading model (Turkey Long) that will get me long the NQ for that time frame...
- however, i am becoming increasingly concerned that we may see a selloff in the NQ over the next days or after the thanksgiving bullish seasonality passess...
- if the NQ does head lower into tuesday of next week, i think the 1750 area is a reasonable target...ES may test the 1070 area...
- the 1700-1725 area on the NQ may be a reasonable target if there is a post thanksgiving selloff...
- i am going to be reducing my risk by my lowering my avg price and looking to add more of the NQZ09 at lower levels...
- offering out 1 contract at 1798.50 and 1811.50...
- no bids at this time, but i will be watching and waiting for a good long setup...
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