10/26/2009 12:40 pm update: NQ, ES end of year swing high targets

• lots of volatility...
• short term negatives kicking in...
• though i am not that happy about exiting too quickly this am for small gains on the long NQZ09, i am happy to have gotten out of that swing position, and have started another swing long...
• this time, i am actually being a bit more conservative...
• went long 1 contract at 1763.50 and 1 contract at 1746.25...
• now long 2 contracts at avg 1754.88...
• bidding for another contract at 1726.50...
• offering out 1 contract at 1767.50 and 1776.50...
• the more experienced traders/commentartors i follow are on the whole, a little bearish on this dip down, while the less experienced traders/commentartors are more bearish on this dip down...the less experienced are also tending to refer to the ES 1100 peak as 'the top' for the move up from this past march...
• i could not disagree more with this view of ES 1100 being the swing peak from the march low...
• i remain bullish on the NQ and the ES into at the least the end of 2009, and probably longer...i will re-evaluate in january 2010...
• markets rarely peak in october, with 10/07 being the rare example...the october 2007 and the october 2009 backdrops are significantly different from each other....
• the end of october thru the end of december, tends to be the most bullish time of year...
• by the end of the year, i am targeting the ES to have hit 1170 and the NQ to have hit 1900, both of which are about 10% higher from here...i am not saying the 12/31/2009 close will be at these levels, i am saying these levels will be reached by 12/31/2009...
• of course i could be wrong...if i start to believe the market is in fact putting in a longer term peak, i will change my longer term directional bias from long to neutral or even to short....i put this as a low odds scenario though...
• if my bullish thesis plays out, i expect to see ES 1170ish and the NQ 1900ish by the end of the year...
  

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***