- picked up a 3rd NQZ09 contract during the overnight session at 1747.50...
- brings my 3 contract avg to 1758.33...
- sold 1 contract shortly after the open at 1755.00, which was the swing high of the morning move to the exact tick...
- this trade: -3.33 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
- the NQ is about 2.5% below its recent swing high...at this point below the high, i prefer to be long 1 or 2 contracts, not 3...
- i wanted to pick up the 3rd contract, so that i could sell it a bit higher...this would enable me to take a small loss (relative to the avg entry price of the entire position), decrease my size, and free up some capital for additions to be made at a lower price...this is an example of working my average price down...
- i remain bullish longer term on the NQ, however the short term is more up in the air, and more downside would not be unusual...i want to be in a position to pick up some NQZ09 if it does move lower....
- bidding 1733.50 for 1 contract...
- offerering 1 contract at 1768.00 and at 1777.50...
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***
Posts
Hi Adam, do you have a target for where the NQ will end up in the next few days? I think yesterday's selling was pretty extreme is already oversold. I think the ES will revist 1055 or so sometime this week, but a reasonable bounce is not out of the question.
ReplyDeletethanks.
hi mvw...
ReplyDeletei agree with what you are saying: we have already had a big move down, so a bounce is not out of the question...
i can envision a scenario where the NQ trades down to the low 1700's, as well as it challenging the swing highs at 1780ish....msft is reporting before the bell tomorrow morning, and that should be an additional catalyst...
my longer term directional bias is to be long the NQ...however, i really don't know where the NQ will move to on any given day...
i just have a plan that is based on my longer term bias (be long):
1) buy it lower,
2) sell it higher,
3) manage my avg cost the best i can
mvw,
ReplyDeletethere are some days that i do have a potential upside or downside target for the NQ...those days are pretty rare though...today and tomorrow are not one of those days for me...
i hope these comments are helpful...
adam
Thanks, Adam. I understand, that clarifies a lot how you approach the market. I'm still trying to get over my fixation with targets, but I'm slowly taking the larger picture into perspective. It will sell until it bases, and when it bases, that's the target.
ReplyDeleteHave a good day today.
targets are real tough...
ReplyDeletethis is something that i am working on for both my discretionary swing trading of the NQ, and for my discretionary daytrading of equities that i do over at velez capital managment (now known as 'team trading')...
i am always trying to identify levels (bases, trendlines, pivots, key moving averages, etc) on mulitiple time frames, and look for places where a few of these levels converge for target 1, target 2, target 3 etc...i also take volatility into account...
its quite a mosaic that i use for attempting to identify optimal targets/levels for exits and for entries...and it remains a work in progress, such that i maximize the upside relative to the risk i am bearing on the downside...