- during the last dip down in the FAS from the end of september to the beginning of october, i was scaling into the FAS in the low 80's thru the high 60's (large green oval), with a final average entry of around 77.95...not an ideal average for the range...i was too aggressive in the low 80's...
- i started scaling out of this discretionary swing trade on monday (low 88's)...today another one of exit targets were hit (93.50)...the exits are displayed within the red oval...
- of the six FAS lots that i started with, only two remain...i am currently offering them at 95.00 and 96.50...
- as per my post last night, i believed the odds were high for a gap fill this morning on the NQ...the NQ opened around 1750 and then sold off to the 1740 pivot, but didn't fill the gap down to the high 1720's...
- i was bidding in the 1730's but these levels were never reached...during lunch, i raised my bid to 1741.50, but it wasn't filled...the uptrend was very strong today...
- the NQ did break its previous swing high of 1753.25, reaching the 1754.50 today...a few weeks back, during the NQ/ES downdraft, i was calling for an eventual new swing high...
- this move up in the NQ has generally shown rw compared to the ES...i prefer market leadership from the NQ, however, i will gladly accept it from the ES when it is being led by the financials...
- the NQ appears pretty extended to me right now...i remain bullish on it through the end of year...
- right now, i will be more conservative with my discretionary swing trade entries in the NQ...
- i can see the NQ possibly falling to the high 1600's on the next swing move down...these levels may change if the NQ grinds up from these levels..
- i am currently bidding 1745.00 for 1 contract and 1726.50 for a 2nd contract...
- historical trades are not being shown correctly on the above NQ 15M chart...
- ES is beginning to trade above its upper trend line again...
- the last time this happened (in the latter half of september), the ES based for a week or so, and then dropped down to the lower trend line...
- who knows if this will happen again, but i will be watching this pattern...
Disclosure: Long FAS.
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***
Posts
Adam I love the bid and offer terminology you use. My first contact with a market place as a kid was the local cattle auction mart.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter if you are buying and selling crude oil, S & Ps, or cattle, it's an auction mart for all of them.
solfest...yup, its all an auction! how old were you when you went to your first one? how's your crude oil trading going?
ReplyDeleteadam
Oh I would have been around 11 yrs old. Crude has been quiet recently but overall still pretty good.
ReplyDeleteLast few days the large moves have happened in the overnight market.
solfest, have you ever pit traded or have you always been a screen trader? always screen for me...
ReplyDeletewhen i was 13, i sold my baseball cards and bought 90% silver coins...this was back when the hunt brothers were cornering the silver market (did not work out so well for them)...i flipped the coins within a few months and made a good % return...this was my first 'trade'... a few years later, i was trading oil stocks in a custodial account my mom setup for me (1982)...there were some early gains, then my returns flatened out...i left the market and didn't return to it until 1996...full time now since 1999...its been quite the ride...
how long have you been trading?
do you hold overnight or just daytrade crude?
ReplyDeleteI have never pit traded. I used to own a cattle ranch in Alberta so my trading was "live". :)
ReplyDeleteI started down this path in 1996 when I took the courses to become a stock broker after selling the farm. Some how I wound up in commercial banking and did some swing trading for the next 10 years. In 2005 I decided to start day trading in the morning before work and then took the plunge and went full time in 2007.
I manage our stock portfolio on a fundamental basis and hold most positions for many years, or forever. The trading is strictly intra day and I never hold overnight.
now that is live trading!
ReplyDeletewhat was it like managing a fundamentally based stock portfolio during the recent crash?
It was, how shall I put it, rather negative.
ReplyDeleteI didn't completely stand pat, I moved to the largest cash % I have ever had. Anyone in the portfolio that had to cut a dividend was sold.
The mistake I made was not deploying it all again in March. I nibbled instead of going all in. I’m still sitting with 29% cash and waiting for that "next leg down".
Which I’m beginning to think may never happen. :)
"...I’m still sitting with 29% cash and waiting for that "next leg down". Which I’m beginning to think may never happen..."
ReplyDeletesolfest, i think a lot of money managers are in the same boat...i believe the 'fear of missing' this rally and pm's underperforming their benchmarks are helping to drive the major indices higher...they can't get much inventory at lower prices, so they are buying them at higher prices...