'BTD Index' generated an Entry Signal for Thursday's Close, 10/1/2009. This is another one of my favorite models. The last five trade's from this model were profitable, each one generating a new high for the Equity Curve. The last four have occurred since this past June.
The premise of the model is mean reversion, such that when the NDX is in a longer term uptrend, buy the shorter term dips. Clearly defining the 'longer term uptrend', the 'shorter term dip', as well as the price target exit and the money management stop (which is time based, not price based), is key to this model's success.
Here are some of the model's Performance Statistics:
- Model Tracking Vehicle=NDX
- Start Date=11/1/1985
- Number of Trades=123
- Average Trade Return=1.70%
- Average Winning Trade Return=2.72%
- Average Losing Trade Return=-2.51%
- Win Rate=80%
- Ratio of Average Win/Average Loss (RAWAL)=1.08
- Profit Factor=4.47
Disclosure: Long NQZ09.
Disclosure: The performance results shown above are for Model analysis purposes and do not include commission or slippage. The model is built on data from the NDX, but I trade the model with the NQ e-mini. Actual trading results from the NQ usually differ from the model results of the NDX, with the NQ showing somewhat weaker performance data. Nonetheless, I still trade this model with the NQ and when executed according to the plan, it has generated consistent profitability for me.
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***
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