Oliver Velez: Alcoa (AA) the next double

Oliver Velez is the founder of Team Trading, LLC, where I am a proprietary equity and forex trader. Here is a recent video where he describes an upcoming play in Alcoa (AA):

12/15/2009

• the NQ and the ES 'feel' like they want to break above their current resistance levels (NQH10 around 1815 and ESH10 around 1115)...
• with positive historical december opex week, and positive end of december seasonality, tomorrow's FOMC rate announcement at 2:15pm might be the catalyst to get the indices over these levels...
• if they do pop, i can envision them running up around 2-4%...
• however, many of the short term and intermediate term oscillators i follow are getting overbought, so i believe a smallish upside break in mid to late december will lead to a larger downside move sometime in january...
• for a discretionary swing trade, i will probably be looking to get long the NQ after the january move down...i am not sure if i will play a decemeber break above resistance to the longside in the NQ as a discretionary swing trade...
• my systemic swing trading models continue to get chopped up...
• i believe i may have found a setup and money management strategy that fits my personality over at 'team trading' (fka velez capital managment, llc)...i have been working on it for the past few weeks and have seen some positive results...still, there is much work to be done here...
• additionaly, i have joined the forex division of 'team trading' led by dr. todd hanson, and am currently going thru the initial 7 day training...
• lots of juggling right now: systemic swing trading the u.s. stock indices for my account, discretionary swing trading the NQ for my account, discretionary daytrading u.s. equities for my prop account, and discretionary/systemic swingtrading/daytrading forex for my prop account...yes, my head is spinning a bit...
• good trading to everyone!

11/17/2009 1:30 pm update: NQ

• yesterday morning, lunch and early afternoon looked like a trend day, so i moved my limit order up and got in at 1809.00...
• NQZ09 then ran up to a new high on the day, but sold off into the close...
• offering this contract out at 1828.50...
• bidding 1776.50 for one contract...
• lately, i have been putting in a lot of effort building my discretionary daytrading skills at team trading (fka velez capital management)...i am happy to report i am seeing some progress on this front...
• my focus on discretionary daytrading has led to a decrease in posts and market commentary on this blog...i am looking forward to when i can post here more frequently...
• i hope everyones trading is going well...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk**