Friday, September 25, 2009

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

  • there is an old wall street adage: 'sell rosh hashana, buy yom kippur'...
  • stock trader's almanac performed a study on this concept, using DJIA from 1970-2008, concludes that this tendency yielded an average trade return of +0.80%...i don't believe this includes commisions, etc...
  • the max closed trade drawdown is 3.90%...their study does not include a max intraday drawdown figure...
  • this is a behavioral tendency that i can attempt to model for a possible systemic trading system to be in place for september 2010...i would probably substitute the SPY or the NDX for the DJIA...
  • some of the trading patterns that stock trader's almanac has highlighted over the past 10 years, i have been using as starting points for modeling stock market behavior...ultimately, some of these initial behavioral models have become full fledged systemic trading models...'SPY Gopher' is one of them...

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