'1 CT Spyder' generated a long exit signal for tonight's close (9/1/2009)

'1 CT Spyder' generated a long exit signal for tonight's close (9/1/2009).

• what an ugly day...the bulls tried to get us going in the am, but the bears took control into the close...
• the model closed out its position for a 2.33% loss...
• the actual trading position booked a 2.28%, slightly better than the model...
• today's loss was the 3rd worst loss in the model's history...i have to go back to 9/2002 to find a larger loss...interestingly, the 3 worst lossess all took place in the months of september or october...
• i believe the concept for this model is still robust...it is based on the trading behavior of the SPY during the last few days of the calendar month and the first day of the new calendar month...this pattern has been robust since the inception of the SPY in 1993...
• since the begining of july, the primary systemic swing trading models that i have been trading have booked either scratch trades, moderate losses or complete stop outs...very frustrating, especially since the markets have been heading up, though somewhat choppy of late...
• the 'NB #1 NDX' discontinued model generated an entry signal for yesterday's close due to be exited at today close...i stopped trading that model in july because of a flaw in its logic...i am glad i did, because it would have been stoped out for a 1.6% loss today...
• hopefully with the rebuilding of a few of the models to reflect better datastreams and more in sample data, the models will turn around soon, and begin to generate the gains that they have over the past 3-5 years that i have been trading them...
• historically the systemic swing trading portfolio posts a max drawdown of about 15% from its recent high...right now, the portfolio is down about 12% from its early july high...
• the portfolio gets another go at it tomorrow, as the 'NDX 1st DoM' model generated an entry signal for today's close....
• chin up adam, tomorrow is a new day...

Disclosure: Long NQU09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***