9/30/2009 9:45 am update

• my systemic 'NDX 30th DoM' may generate a long entry signal for today's close...i say the odds are 50/50...my systemic 'NDX 1st DoM' may generate a long entry signal for tomorrow's close...i say the probability for this is about 98%...since at least one, if not two models, are probably going to give me a full NQ position in the market by end of today or tomorrow, i am inclined to book some gains in my discretionary swing trade of the NQ...
• during the overnight session, i lowered my offer on the 1 NQZ09 contract i am holding from 1736.50 to 1726.50...the morning economic data releases caused some volatility, and the NQ traded as high as 1726.25, 1 tick below my offer...upon returning from my morning errands, i noticed this missed offer, and sold my last NQZ09 contract at market (1722.00)...
• +7.92 NQ points/contract, 1 contract traded...
• currently flat the NQZ09...
• having said all that, i am interested in picking up some NQ if we trade down to the lower portion of the recent daily range...i am bidding for 1 contract at 1708.50, and 1 contract at 1693.50...
• i am still long a full position in the ES via my 'SPY Gopher' systemic trading model, which is due to be exited on thursday's close...since i am long the ES and it is highly co-related to the NQ, i would rather not see the NQ trade down to 1708.50 or 1693.50, but if it does, i will get back in it...
• so over the past 3 days, i have sold the 3 NQZ09 contracts picked up during late last week's downdraft, for a total of about +8.33NQ points/contract, 3 contracts held...at the worst level last week, the NQZ09 traded down to 1688.75...i was averaged in at 1714.08...at that worst level, i was down about 25 points/contract...so my return on these 3 contracts relative to my max intraday drawdown was not good...if i was not holding a full position in the ES or about to get a systemic signal to get long a full position in the NQ, i would have held these 3 contracts for a longer period of time, and ideally exited them at higher prices...this would have increased my profit relative to my drawdown...trading multiple styles on multiple time frames with limited capital sometimes leads to non-ideal entries and/or exits for my discretionary trading...
• trading with oliver at vcm today and tomorrow...

Disclosure: Long ESZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***