- wow! i thought we would see some volatility after the FOMC release, but not as much as this...
- when i exited the second NQZ09 swing position of the day at 1738.50 around noontime, i continued bidding for it at 1731.50...however, the NQ just traded sideways from 1737-1741 into 2pm...
- to me, this was a demonstration of strength, so i wanted to be long for the FOMC release and purchased 1 NQZ09 at 1740 at 154pm...
- shortly after the FOMC announcement was made, the NQ broke above 1740 resistance and traded up to 1748.50...i was offering out at 1747.50 and was filled...
- +7.50 NQ points/contract, 1 contract traded...
- total for the day: +7 NQ points/contract, 3 contracts traded: +21 NQ points...
- then i thought we could see a retracement to the breakout level, and while i thought 1742.50 would be a good level, i was hesitant that with the initial show of strength, if there was a selloff, it may not get down to 1742.50, so i bid 1743.50...
- i was filled a few minutes later at 1743.50, with the low of that swing coming in at 1740.50...
- i thought that if the NQ were to rally from here, it would take out the 1748.50 high and trade into the low to mid 1750's, so i offered out my 1 contract at 1752.50...
- if i were to be filled at 1752.50, i didn't want to take any more entries in the low 1740's because somehow someway, i just didn't think that the NQ trading there during anytime in the afternoon would be bullish...
- i was a bit tired from working through lunch, so i took a nap until about 350 pm...
- when i got back to my desk, i saw that i missed a lot of the fireworks!...i was happy to see that my offer level of 1752.50 was on target, that i got filled, and that i had held off from re-entering in the low 1740's...
- +9 NQ points/contract, 1 contract traded...
- however getting long again in the 1720's was very interesting to me, so i moved my 1715 bid up to 1722.50 and got hit a few minutes before the 4pm closing bell...
- this late day selloff looks bearish in the short term...the NQ put in a topping tail on the 15M and the 60M chart, is now trading below the 1740 and the 1730 pivots and below some key moving averages on the 60M chart...
- so if i think this is short term bearish behavior in the NQ, why am i buying it instead of being flat or shorting it? well, i stayed flat on test of the 1740 pivot and on a test of 1730 pivot...even though i slept through the test of these areas, i purposely did not want to buy at these levels and was not bidding for the NQ there...i was bidding for it at 1715 and at 1693.50...
- with the NQ trading down to the low 1720's, it is now down about 2% from its highest swing high...the august and september selloffs saw the NQ fall 4-5% from its swing highs to swing lows...the june and july selloffs saw the NQ fall about 7% from its swing highs to its swing lows...
- i am also very bullish on the NQ heading into the end of the year...with a little luck, the NQ will continue DOWN, and i can pick up more of it to sell higher some period of time later...i want the NQ to come down, as this is when i can increase my average swing trade return from about 7.5 NQ points recently up to perhaps 12.5 NQ points or more, and get larger in size in the process...
- total for the day: +7.5 NQ points/contract, 4 contracts traded: +30 NQ points...
- i have been swing trading the NQ on a discretionary basis since mid july, and today has been one of my best days so far..i am cognizant of the tendency for me and for other traders to get sloppy after a good day, so my job is to stay focused and trade the NQ with the some analytical rigor and the same risk management (position sizing), as i have been over the past 2 months...
- i am currently bidding for more NQZ09 at 1708.50 and at 1693.50...
- i am currently offering out 1 NQZ09 contract at 1736.50...
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***
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