Tuesday, September 1, 2009

9/1/2009 1145 am update



  • wow, big ramp by the bulls into the 10 am news, then the news beats expectations, and then a huge sell off which is still underway...
  • since i was already long the ES via '1 Ct Spyder' and there is a looming EOD entry signal for the 'NDX 1st DoM', and since i have been slightly off with my exit targets in the NQ lately, i decided to change the previous limit orders of 1635.00 and 1646.00...
  • i sold one contract at 1626 (just below the 1627.50 pivot) and one contract at 1640.25 (just above the midpoint of the 1627.50 - 1648 range), netting +7.25 total (3.625 pts/contract)...
  • i would have loved to have been able to hold on for the initial targets, but my analysis and risk management would not let me...if i had to do it all over again, i would do it the same way...
  • an additional concern was the major indices are seeing some short term topping action and there are lots of bears looking to front run the typical september weakness, that we might see some strong selling pressure on worse than expected econ data and that would lead to a sell off like we are currently witnessing...i did not imagine that this intense sell off would come on the back of better than expected econ data!
  • the '1 Ct Spyder' stop is set on the ES at 994.00...after the strong rally into 10 am which saw the ESU09 trade as high as 1027.75, and the seemingly never ending losses for my systemic swing trading models, i will be quite disappointed if it stops out...however if it does, i will just wait for the next entry signal and take it when it comes...trading is all about standing up after falling down...
  • being that i am expecting a long entry signal from the 'NDX 1st DoM' systemic swing model at the close today, i am not looking to enter a discretionary swing trade for the NQ for the rest of the day...

Disclosure: Long ESU09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

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