Break Time 2: Eminem's 'Lose Yourself'

this one gets me pumped...

Break Time 1: "Bridge Over Troubled Water" - 25th Anniversary The Rock & Roll Hall Of Fame Concert

i was really moved by this performance, especially the end...art really belted it out...

12/9/2009 NDX OU generated an entry signal for today's close.

My 'NDX OU' systemic trading model generated an entry signal for today's close. The NDX put in an outside upside day today. In other words, today's low was lower then yesterday's low, and today's close was higher then yesterday's high. There are two additional filters as well.

The dynamic stop is currently set to 0.90%. If this stop is not hit, then this position is due to be exited on Friday's close. This model was recently rebuilt, and this is the first trade of the new build. The historical equity curve is shown above.

Model Performance Stats:

• Model Tracking Vehicle=NDX
• Start Date=11/1/1985
• Number of Trades=71
• Average Trade Return=0.66%
• Win Rate=68%
• Ratio of Average Win/Average Loss (RAWAL)=1.74
• Profit Factor=3.62

Disclosure: The performance results shown above are for Model analysis purposes and do not include commission or slippage. The model is built on data from the NDX, but I trade the model with the NQ e-mini. Actual trading results from the NQ usually differ from the model results of the NDX, with the NQ showing slightly weaker performance data.

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***

12/9/2009 NQ update: nothing happening

• i use a variety of indicators and oscillators to provide an edge in what direction to trade a discretionary swing position in the NQ....right now nearly all of the indicators/oscillators i look at are neutral...
• i have not been in a NQ discretionary swing position since the begining of thanksgiving week...
• i am proud of my patience...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

David Brooks: An Innovation Agenda

David Brooks: An Innovation Agenda

ECRI: More frequent business cycles ahead

ECRI: More frequent business cycles ahead

11/30/2009 update: i have lost my feel for this market

• i have lost my feel for this market...
• in addition to getting out of my 'turkey long' position on thursday (which would have stopped out on friday), i got chopped up in 3 additional discretionary day/swing trades on friday/monday...
• i have little confidence in an up or a down move sticking...
• since i have such low confidence, i am going to be very picky in establishing any discretionary swing trading positions or taking any systemic trading entry signals...
• i have no positions...
• congrats to anyone who has made money over the past few days with a plan that is reproducible...

Stop the proposed Financial Transaction Tax

• the proposed financial transaction tax continues to get some play in congress...now, paul krugman has jumped on board too...some politicians want wall street to pay for main street's recovery, so they want to tax any purchase of a financial asset and any sale of a financial asset at 0.25%...this would be 0.50% per round trip...$500 tax per $100,000 round trip...
• this would put me and most of the trader's i know out of business...
• short term traders provide liquidity and price discovery to all market participants...
• the traders i know did not cause this mess, so why penalize us?
• i am not responsible for the near collapse of the financial system, so it is not fair that congress's solution to paying for the cleanup is too tax me out of my job...
• the congressional stimulus packages of the past few years are meant to help put people back to work...i am all for that...but how is taxing me out of my job going to help achieve this objective?
• this tax would not just hurt shorter term traders, but longer term investors too (401k, 403b, IRA, etc)...
• my cpa, robert green, put together a petition to help stop this tax...please click on that link to contact your congressional reps and tell them not to pass this bill...i did...
• in addition to emailing my congressional reps (both house and senate), i also paid to have my three letters printed and hand delivered to them...supposedly this has a bigger influence then just emails...it only cost $9...
• we have to stop this tax...