Monday, September 14, 2009

Quiz: what emotions significantly influence trader/investor behavior and thus significantly influence how markets move?

in the middle of july, i posted the following quiz:
  • when the average trader makes a decision to enter or exit a position, one of two emotions is probably dominant in the traders decision making process...what are the two emotions that the average trader might be keying off of?
  • i believe that i engage in this process, a lot, especially when i daytrade...
  • disclosure: this might be a trick question...
the usual pairing of fear and greed may come to mind...however, while i continue to believe that greed may influence the average person's desire to get involved in trading/investing in the capital markets, i don't believe that greed plays much of an influence in the decision making process of entering or exiting a position...rather i continue to believe that fear, and more specifically 'fear of missing' (the move up) and 'fear of losing' (during a move down), significantly influences all 'non trading master's' decision making process... i know it does mine...about a month or so ago, JE and i had a great phone conversation about this...

the folks at traderpsyches appear to have a similar viewpoint:
"...Many traders and investors work off “fundamentals” – i.e. company prospects or economic data. Many traders work off “facts” i.e. the actual price something is trading at and the relationship of that price to prices gone before (some may not think these are enough but they are indeed facts – the S&P is trading right this moment at 984.50 and that IS a fact) and we all can get caught up in the two kinds of fear that drive the market – fear of losing and fear of missing out..."
if you are interested in exploring this line of thinking, then check out the traderpsyches blog...

thanks again to Me vs. WallStreet for posting a link to their site on his blog...

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