12/15/2009

• the NQ and the ES 'feel' like they want to break above their current resistance levels (NQH10 around 1815 and ESH10 around 1115)...
• with positive historical december opex week, and positive end of december seasonality, tomorrow's FOMC rate announcement at 2:15pm might be the catalyst to get the indices over these levels...
• if they do pop, i can envision them running up around 2-4%...
• however, many of the short term and intermediate term oscillators i follow are getting overbought, so i believe a smallish upside break in mid to late december will lead to a larger downside move sometime in january...
• for a discretionary swing trade, i will probably be looking to get long the NQ after the january move down...i am not sure if i will play a decemeber break above resistance to the longside in the NQ as a discretionary swing trade...
• my systemic swing trading models continue to get chopped up...
• i believe i may have found a setup and money management strategy that fits my personality over at 'team trading' (fka velez capital managment, llc)...i have been working on it for the past few weeks and have seen some positive results...still, there is much work to be done here...
• additionaly, i have joined the forex division of 'team trading' led by dr. todd hanson, and am currently going thru the initial 7 day training...
• lots of juggling right now: systemic swing trading the u.s. stock indices for my account, discretionary swing trading the NQ for my account, discretionary daytrading u.s. equities for my prop account, and discretionary/systemic swingtrading/daytrading forex for my prop account...yes, my head is spinning a bit...
• good trading to everyone!

11/17/2009 1:30 pm update: NQ

• yesterday morning, lunch and early afternoon looked like a trend day, so i moved my limit order up and got in at 1809.00...
• NQZ09 then ran up to a new high on the day, but sold off into the close...
• offering this contract out at 1828.50...
• bidding 1776.50 for one contract...
• lately, i have been putting in a lot of effort building my discretionary daytrading skills at team trading (fka velez capital management)...i am happy to report i am seeing some progress on this front...
• my focus on discretionary daytrading has led to a decrease in posts and market commentary on this blog...i am looking forward to when i can post here more frequently...
• i hope everyones trading is going well...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk**

9/30/2009 9:45 am update

• my systemic 'NDX 30th DoM' may generate a long entry signal for today's close...i say the odds are 50/50...my systemic 'NDX 1st DoM' may generate a long entry signal for tomorrow's close...i say the probability for this is about 98%...since at least one, if not two models, are probably going to give me a full NQ position in the market by end of today or tomorrow, i am inclined to book some gains in my discretionary swing trade of the NQ...
• during the overnight session, i lowered my offer on the 1 NQZ09 contract i am holding from 1736.50 to 1726.50...the morning economic data releases caused some volatility, and the NQ traded as high as 1726.25, 1 tick below my offer...upon returning from my morning errands, i noticed this missed offer, and sold my last NQZ09 contract at market (1722.00)...
• +7.92 NQ points/contract, 1 contract traded...
• currently flat the NQZ09...
• having said all that, i am interested in picking up some NQ if we trade down to the lower portion of the recent daily range...i am bidding for 1 contract at 1708.50, and 1 contract at 1693.50...
• i am still long a full position in the ES via my 'SPY Gopher' systemic trading model, which is due to be exited on thursday's close...since i am long the ES and it is highly co-related to the NQ, i would rather not see the NQ trade down to 1708.50 or 1693.50, but if it does, i will get back in it...
• so over the past 3 days, i have sold the 3 NQZ09 contracts picked up during late last week's downdraft, for a total of about +8.33NQ points/contract, 3 contracts held...at the worst level last week, the NQZ09 traded down to 1688.75...i was averaged in at 1714.08...at that worst level, i was down about 25 points/contract...so my return on these 3 contracts relative to my max intraday drawdown was not good...if i was not holding a full position in the ES or about to get a systemic signal to get long a full position in the NQ, i would have held these 3 contracts for a longer period of time, and ideally exited them at higher prices...this would have increased my profit relative to my drawdown...trading multiple styles on multiple time frames with limited capital sometimes leads to non-ideal entries and/or exits for my discretionary trading...
• trading with oliver at vcm today and tomorrow...

Disclosure: Long ESZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

9/18/2009 4pm update

• NQZ09 did eventually hit my 1726.50 target...
• it is now forming an ascending triangle...i re-entered NQZ09 long at 1722.50...
• not sure if i will sell this lot just below the 1730 resistance area during the sunday night session or in the mid to high 1730's during the monday day session...
• now that NQ has been basing for a few days and has worked off some of its short term overbought condition, i am looking for NQ to break above this base and continue its run higher...if it doesn't, then i will be accumulating more NQ as it pulls back, with the intention of selling it higher sometime within the next few weeks...
• good week discretionary swing trading (NQ, FAS), systemic trading ('IDX OU'), and even discretionary daytrading at vcm (+1 R)...
• no systemic swing trading entries for today's close...
• hope everyone has a good weekend...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

9/14/2009 1030 update

NQ discretionary swing trading:

• very powerful uptrend on the 60M chart, pullbacks to the 8MA have been buyable in hindsight, but after numerous days up without a pullback, i have been hesitant to enter on the long side during the uptrend...
• sideways on the 15M chart since thursday afternoon...pause before resumption of the uptrend or base that will break down soon??
• couple of quick scalps to the long side over the past two trading sessions within the base...
• my discretionary swing trading style does better during choppy, ranging, moderately trending periods as compared to power trends...
• NASDAQ internals are mixed...
• NYSE internals are bearish, but improving...
• NQU09 due to expire this friday...i am now using the NQZ09...
• the NQZ09 pivot in the low 1670's has been a good place to enter long (for me) over the past few sessions, with exits in the low 1680's...
• my bias is the NQZ09 is basing before a pullback within the longer term uptrend...with this bias, i am hesitant to enter in the low 1670's again, so currently looking to re-enter the NQ swing long at limit 1658.50 and at limit 1643.50...these levels might be raised if the NQZ09 breaks above 1688 and the internals improve...

vcm discretionary daytrading:

• monday mornings are tough...choppy, not a lot of follow through...
• watch out for gappers that may look good on a daily chart, but have sold off a lot on the premarket intraday chart (ARIA, S)...the first buy setups may fail...wait for buy setups on a higher timeframe...

Disclosure: Long ARIA.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

9/11/2009 notes to self

vcm discretionary daytrading:

• if a position is to be held through lunch, then do not open any new positions after 1115 rt...
• consider exiting open positions into the 1200 or the 130 rt...
• wait until 215 rt to open new positions for afternoon trades...
• if i am comfortable with the uncertainty of a position that is going against me, i have to train myself to be comfortable with a position that is going in my favor...when it is going in my favor, i have noticed that i tend to believe that it will reverse and then go against me...

8/25/2009 11 am update

• ego, ego, ego!! so invested in the trades outcome...so pissed when i am out of sync!!
• afraid of not having a position in the NQ for the discretionary swing trade...afraid that i am going to miss the move...afraid, afraid, afraid...
• tired of the day and night sesssion chop in the NQ since mid morning friday...when the NQ gapped up this am into the low 1640's, my limit order which was moved down from 1656.50* to the mid 1640's, but i kept on missing the exit by a few ticks...so i moved the limit order down and down and down and the got filled at 1641.25 (for +5.75 NQ points/contract)...
• what did the NQ do then?? why it went on to rally to recent resistance at 1647ish, break that resistance and rally up to 1655.50...
• i decided that i did want to get back into the NQ, but at a level that takes the following into consideration: multiple time frame analysis (15M, 60M, Daily), pivots, moving averages and expected ATR high/low areas (http://stbsmb.blogspot.com/2009/08/atr-average-true-range-volality-bands.html)...this analysis led me to place a re-entry order at limit 1642.50...
• the 1655.50 high of the day was hit at 1004 am, and then 14 minutes later i was filled at 1642.50...i didn't expect/want to get filled that quickly, as that quick reversal suggest potential weakness....however the market internals were either neutral (TRINQ) or bullish (AD LINE), so i still took the trade...
• exit order at limit 1653.50...
• in my vcm daytrading account, i shorted the COCO gap up...the entry was good, however i messed up the exit just like i did yesterday with VRX...
• when R base trading, i need to decide if i am going to scalp a small portion of the position when the trading vehicle moves to predefined pivots and moving averages (for both exits and entries), or if i am going to use an AON (all or none) tactic with a hard stop and a hard target...i need to think more about this...

* i tend to place an entry and an exit order in the overnight session that is somewhat far away from the closing price, but within 1 ATR of the that closing price...i don't expect the order to be filled, but i want to take advantage of the possibility of a volatile overnight session and have an order sitting there just in case we have a big move in either/both direction(s)....the more heavily i am currently positioned the more inclined i am to exit than enter, and the more lightly i am positioned, the more inclined i am to enter than exit...

Disclosure: Long NQU09.


***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

8/24/2009 post close update

NQU09 discretionary swing trade:

• very narrow day for the NQU09 today...
• still long 1 contract at 1635.50...
• current orders to sell limit 1656.50 and to buy a second contract at limit 1617.50...
• working on building an indicator that plots an average true range (ATR) projection for the High range and the Low range of the current trading day...in addition to the obvious pivot points on a 15 minute chart, i am incorporating these High and Low range projections into my thinking when determining buy and sell levels for the NQU09...

Systemic swing model rebuild:

• the $IDX and the $RUT.X data series on TradeStation incorrectly reports the Daily Bar's opening price...it uses the previous Daily bar's Closing price, and thus there are no Opening gaps...this inaccurate data was effecting the entry filters and the stops for models that use these data series...a different data series is now being used as a proxy for the S&P 400 (MDY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM)...
• the 'BO IDX' model was rebuilt on the MDY data series...it is being discontinued because it is not robust...this discontinuation saved me some money today as the old 'BO IDX' model generated an entry signal for this past friday's close which would have posted a 0.50% stop loss today...i am pretty psyched to have finally had a model rebuild that worked in my favor...
• 'BTBT IDX' and 'BTBT RUT' have been successfully rebuilt using the new data series'...
• there is a lot more testing/building to be done, but progress is being made...

VCM daytrading:

• learning a trading style that gets my position bigger as it goes in my favor, as opposed to getting bigger when it goes out of my favor...very interested in continuing to learn more about this style...
  

Disclosure: Long NQU09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

8/21/2009 11 am update

NQ discretionary swing trading:

• bought some NQU09 during the overnight session at 1608.50 and sold it into the top of the pre-open range at 1622.75...
• booked + 14.25 NQ points/contract...
• NQ showing relative weakness (rw) compared to YM, ES, EMD, TF...
• i missed getting back in during the post open sell off...NQU09 traded down to 1614.25 and my order was limit 1613.50...
• market ramps up after the 10 am housing data...
• semi's lagging (SMH)...
• ES breaking above its recent range, and showing relative strength...
• took NQ a while longer to trade above the top of the month long base (1632)...
• all major indices looking a bit extended and trading to or just above the recent month long range...most indices already moving to the extremes of their expected daily range...of course they could beyond their expected range, but it makes sense to me that they may stall for a bit in the current areas...
• option expiration makes things a bit tricky...
• i am not buying the NQ breakout right now...i am bidding for it at limit 1622.50 though...

VCM daytrading:

• if i am going to scalp opening gaps, then i need to have a fixed dollar loss amount, perhaps 1 R unit...
• today's opening gap up in CSTR that i traded to the long side, did nothing but sell off from the opening tick...
• instead of limiting to my risk to 1 R unit, i just thought i could work the position back to break even...
• after CSTR dropped below the breakout level (32.40 ish) and then below the whole number 32.00 i sold my position...this cost me 5 R's....way to much...
• if i am going to scalp a position, it has to be with a max stop of 1 R...if i don't do this, the numerous small gains are going to be negated by the periodic large loss, like today and like numerous times in the past....
• good lecture this am by oliver...discussion on opening gaps and on optimal self-talk...this morning, i did not follow his opening gap concepts...i got crushed...hmmmm, maybe i should be paying more attention to what he is talking about!

FAS longer term discretionary swing trade:

• the IRA lot i bought on 8/11 at 66.65 i sold this am into resistance at 75.07...
• two IRA lots to be purchased at limit: 68.35, 61.50...
• the current two IRA lots to be sold at limit: 84, 94
• 6 more custodial account lots to be sold at limit: 86, 88, 96, 98, 106, 108...

Disclosure: Long FAS.
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

8/20/2009 post close update

• exited all NQU09 discretionary swing trading lots today: 1 @ 1607.50, 1 @ 1612.50, 1 @ 1617.50, for an average exit of 1612.50...
• this nets to +16.33 NQ points/contract with a holding period of 5 days...
• currently flat, looking to re-enter with 1 lot at limit 1607.50...
• todays daily range in the NQ was a bit narrower than i expected...
• great phone conversation with JE today...
• only made the time to rebuild one systemic swing trade model...
• no systemic swing trade entries were generated for today's close...
• happy to have finally booked some profits after the latest systemic swing trade stop loss...
• happy with my vcm daytrading process and results...

8/20/2009 post open update

NQU09 discretionary swing trade/'BTD Index' systemic swing model:

• NQU09 traded down to 1591 after the 830 economic data releases, and if that is the low for the session, and with an expected range of 2.00-2.60% today, then the NQU09 projects up to 1623-1632 for today's session...
• 1632 has been the high of this month long base...
• sell limit 1612.50 has been filled...
• sell limit 1617.50 is still open...
• though the 'BTD Index' systemic swing trading plan calls for exiting at the close if the NDX closes about 1603.50, i am going to call an audible and sell that NQU09 lot at limit 1622.50...this is against that model's trading plan...
• added a buy limit 1603.50...if it fills, then i will sell it at limit 1622.50 and move the 'BTD Index' related lot from limit 1622.50 to 1627.50....
• NQ started to show some RS compared to the other major equity indices (YM, ES, EMD, TF)...

VCM daytrading account:

• shorted the LANC gap up into resistance and booked a quick + $0.70/share on the post gap up drop...
• HURN gapped up, i bought some on a pullback, it didn't show much strength after the pullback, so i exited with + $0.06/share...
• GENZ trading above its daily and hourly base, bought some on a pullback, exited on a return to the morning high for + $0.27/share...able to enter and exit a second position in GENZ for + $0.15/share...

Other:

• really impressed with Dr. Brett Steenbarger's TraderFeed blog...i am finding it to be a great resource for statistical analysis of market behavior as well as for insights into the psychological (EQ) part of trading...
• i am having a lot of fun trading today!

Disclosure: Long NQU09, Long GENZ.


***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

8/19/2009 post close update

• NQ appears to have made a nice recovery from the -1.00% opening gap, closing up about 0.50%
• the discretionary NQU09 swing trade is now essentially flat...
• still looking to sell the NQU09 at 1607.50, 1617.50, 1627.50...the orders are on my brokers book, and could be hit overnight if the NQU09 trades up there...
• if any of these orders are hit, i am not sure where and when i may re-enter the NQU09...
• the 'BTD Index' systemic swing trade is up about 2%...an exit signal has not been generated for this model yet...if the NDX closes about 0.30% or more above today's close, then a 'BTD Index' exit signal will be generated for tomorrow's close...
• no systemic swing trade entry signals were generated for today's close...
• between yesterday and today, i remodeled six of my systemic swing trading models...in addition to the 30 models i am currently trading, there are about a half dozen that are on the suspension list...these will be remodeled as well...
• this process takes a lot of time...i figure i can do about 3/day...with some focus and hard work, i should finish this by labor day...
• did some daytrades this am (and yesterday am) in my vcm daytrading account...flat for the two days...
• need to filter out more of the setups that get discussed in the vcm chat room (DOW, HPQ) and just enter the ones that make sense to me (NVDA...great trade idea from the room, but i scalped it instead of R it and left a lot on the table)...
• my scalp trades tended to work out well (ERTS, ANN)...
• my R based trades netted out flat (HURN + 1R, LANC -1R)...
• very happy with how i entered, exited, position sized and managed the HURN trade...i should look to this trade as a model of how i should R trade...
• in the IRA and custodial accounts, the FAS was flat today...exit orders are still on the book at the same levels mentioned in earlier posts...

Disclosure: Long NQU09, long FAS.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...***

VCM Proprietary Trading Room Open House on Thursday 8/13/2009

VCM Proprietary Trading Room Open House: Free Access

Open to everyone for one full day of unlimited access

August 13th 8:30 am - 430 pm ET

"Designed to support the needs of our very own elite proprietary traders, participants in the VCM Proprietary Trading Room will be under the direct tutelage of Master Trader Paul Lange from the market open to the closing bell as he leads VCM traders throughout the trading day.

Watch and listen as he unveils his daily bias premarket before the opening bell, compiles watch lists of gap trading candidates and offers insight as to the proper strategies and criteria to apply in preparation of the trading day. As the market opens and the foot prints of money unfold, Master Trader Paul Lange continually provides our VCM traders with ongoing market analysis and live trading candidates as opportunities materialize in real time. Watch Paul call live trades and apply sound trade management dictated by VCM’s methodology as he pulls profits from the market each and every day, if not each and every hour."

http://www.vcmtrading.com/events.php#

7/30/2009 morning update

• NQ rallied up this am...i fine tuned my target of 1625, such that when the QQQQ approached the whole number of 40.00, i would exit the NQ...filled at 1623.50
• this discretionary swing trade grossed 31.50 points/contract...
• combined with the two discretionary NQ swing trades taken on friday 7/24/2009 (http://stbsmb.blogspot.com/2009/07/7242009-noon-update.html), i have grossed 59.5 NQ points/contract over the past week...not bad! the chart above shows 2.5 of the 3 trades from the past week...for some reason the entry for the first trade is not being shown...
• i am not sure if i will re-enter the NQ swing trade...if i do, i have not determined where my entry, target exit, and money management stop would be...
• in my discretionary day trading account at vcm, i am trading HLX and YHOO to the long side...flat on YHOO, down a bit on HLX...
• just closed YHOO for a tiny gain...closed HLX for a 1 R loss...

7/29/2009 afternoon update

• 1 discretionary daytrade in my vcm account based on an opening gap...small profit...
• still holding the NQ discretionary swing long trade...entered at 1592.50, target 1625...additional buy orders at 1576.50, 1552.50...
• made some great progress coding up some components of the ES intraday system...
• no systemic swing trade model entry signals for today...
• i am going to check out a presentation tomorrow: 'Joe Bridges – of www.treasuryincomeengine.com is going to show EXACTLY how to data mine and build a valid - successful trading system'...
• i am not familiar with Joe's work, but i am always interested in how system builders go about constructing their models http://www.onlinetradercentral.com/presenter_090730.asp

7/28/2009 afternoon update

• no afternoon trades in the vcm daytrading account
• the NQ discretionary swing trade is in the money 10+ points (marked at the 4pm ny close of 1603)...my target continues to be 1625 for this lot...
• no systemic swing trading entry signals were generated at today's close...
• made significant progress coding a work around for a component of the ES intraday systemic model...overall there is still a lot of work to do, but progress is being made building the model's structure in the most robust manner that JE (http://myestradingjournal.blogspot.com/) and I can think of...
• oliver velez, a trading/teaching master, and founder of the daytrading firm i am with, is holding a conference call wednesday night at 415pm ny time...he will give his outlook on the market, review a few lucky conference call participants closed trades and evaluate stocks of your choice (http://www.vcmtrading.com/events.php#)...
• FAS -1% today...

Disclosure: Long NQU09, Long FAS.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security***

7/28/2009 morning update

• re-entered the NQ swing trade (at 1592.50) on monday morning just above the bottom of the friday afternoon's base...i thought the odds were good that we would continue to power on up, but just after my entry the NQ sold off to 1578.50...
• i have an order in to buy another lot at 1576.50 and at 1552.50...current target is 1625.00, and my exit order is sitting there...
• started late today, so i didn't trade any opening gaps in my vcm account today...yesterday, i played PXP and MYL to the short side from their opening gaps...made a tiny bit on both...the main vcm chat room moderator/trader/teacher also played MYL to the short side, and after MYL exhausted itself on the downside, he then traded it to the long side...he booked more than 10 R's on the trade...i was pretty amazed at how he handled the trade, and he talked us through it live...
• no systemic swing trades were generated for yesterday's close...its been 5 days since the last trade there...i imagine a new entry signal should be coming any day now...
• ran into some coding/EasyLanguage issues yesterday when i was working on the ES intraday systemic model...i thought of a work around for it last night, and will write up that code and test it this am....
• FAS tacked on a few percent yesterday...

Disclosure: Long NQU09, Long FAS.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security***

7/24/2009 afternoon update

• , NQoriginal NQ target of 1597.50 would have been hit by EOD...i need to continue working on the discretionary day/swing trading plan, so that it factors in more of my emotions...
• the way it looks now, what started out as a multi day NQ swing trade turned into a NQ daytrade...how did this happen? i did not expect the NQ to continue its upward climb so fast after yesterday's apparent exhaustion day...however, all major market indices filled their opening gap downs, and are again testing their recent highs...relentless buying pressure...i thought it more probable that if we were to test the highs today, a summer friday, that we would drop back down later in the day, and i could rebuild my position...wrong! it didn't happen that way...low probability behavior, in my view for the market to continue its run up today...
• i will still be looking to add long side NQ exposure on a counter trend move down...i am hoping that will happen sunday night or monday...if not, i am not sure if i will buy a break above the recent NQ high of 1604...
• S&P 1000 will probably be the next target....those still short the market, or under invested, may be looking at a break above S&P 1000 (just as they are now doing with S&P 950) as the next psychological target to adjust their positions...
• i wonder if the 'fear of losing' for the shorts and the 'fear of missing' for the longs will be at play on a break above 1000 on the S&P 500?? i say the answer is yes! we could see another strong ramp up on a break above S&P 1000 if the shorts and longs get real emotional...
• if i/you/we could book on average just 1 ES point per day/contract (net of commissions), that would be 252 points/contract/year...at the current ES level of 979 that would be 26%/year...all i/you/we have to do is figure out how to do that...what a great challenge! at 26% per year, financial security would be at hand...
• finished the R&D on a particular component of the systemic ES intraday model that JE and i are working on...just need to code it up...also ready to back test a few of the model's filters...
• great phone conversation with JE today (http://myestradingjournal.blogspot.com/)...i think he comes up with a new trading idea/concept every day!
• happy with my vcm discretionary day trading this week...looking to continue my approach next week...
• no systemic swing trading signals generated today....
• though i didn't fully follow my discretionary swing/day trading plan for the NQ, i am still happy to have booked 27 NQ points/contract today...
• have a great weekend everybody!!

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security***

7/24/2009 morning update

NQ discretionary swing trade:

• since we rallied so quickly from yesterday's late sell off and i didn't believe the NQ would be able to make new swing highs so soon, i sold my first NQ lot at 1589.50 at 943 am (booking 14.75 points)...this level was around the area that would fill this morning's gap down and the area of the overnight session's swing high...
• i bought that lot back 15 minutes later at 1575.25...
• if we rally back up today, i will sell this second lot somewhere in 1587.50-1597.50 area...currently, i have a limit order in at 1597.50...if we don't rally back up to this range by late afternoon, then i will carry this NQ lot overnight...
• i have another order to buy 1 lot (1552.50) just above the next lower pivot (1547)...a potential move down to this area on the NQ will probably coincide with a move down in the ES to the 950 area...

VCM discretionary daytrading:

• traded TUP to the short side for my VCM account this am...was in and out 2x, both winners...small profits, less than 1 R in total...
• this makes 8 consecutive trading days netting profits daytrading, mostly opening gaps...small steps...i did have a few losses, but they were all manageable, never even approaching the daily loss limit on any of them...
• i am going to continue working on this opening gap approach...
• i am not planning on placing any more daytrades in my vcm account today...this week has been my most profitable week at vcm since i started there in july 2008...while my $ profits were not enough to qualify for potential advancement to the next trading level, the trading performance trend of the past 2 weeks is definitely in the right direction...
• one of things i can do to potentially increase my $ profits, is to trade bigger size, trade more opening gappers, and/or trade additional setups that may occur later in the day...not sure yet which may be the best option for me...

Disclosure: Long NQU09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security***

7/23/2009 update

• continued to play opening gappers in my vcm account...went 4 for 4, with 3 shorts and 1 long...only generated 1 R though...
• market continues to be a beast to the upside...i am looking to build discretionary swing long side exposure during any counter trend move down, and just opened my first lot in the NQU09 at 1574.75 at 840pm (about 2% below today's intraday peak, and just above wednesday's intraday peak)...my bias is the next upside target for the S&P 500 is 1000, though it may retest the 950 breakout level before getting there...i am hoping it does retest the 950 area as this will enable me to get a bit longer for the next swing move up...though i am writing about the S&P 500, i am trading the NASDAQ 100 via the NQ...the NASDAQ 100 has led the major market indices higher, and it is my market proxy of choice...
• continued working on the ES intraday systemic trading model...JE has some terrific trading ideas (http://myestradingjournal.blogspot.com/)...we are hoping to build something that is very robust...so far so good, but there is a lot more to do...made progress today conceptualizing one of the model's components, and performed some statistical analysis to help determine its optimal implementation...still more to do here though....
• no entry signals for the systemic swing trading models were generated today....
• the FAS is up about 20% in my IRA, and is flat in the two custodial accounts...the custodial accounts got in a bit too early, but since these are longer term investments, i believe they will do fine...looking for about 100% return for the FAS within the next 9-15 months...

Disclosure: Long NQU09, Long FAS

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security***