- the ES and the NQ did bounce after the midday breakdown, but not enough to have them close green on the day...the ES bounced up from 1036 to 1045 and the NQ from 1689 to 1702, but they closed right around the 1041 and 1695 midday breakdown pivots...
- the NQ has dropped 3.7% from its swing high (1753) on wednesday to the current swing low (1689) hit today...the previous august and september swing high to lows was around 4%...
- overall it has been a mixed week swing trading the NQ on a discretionary basis...
- for the swing trades that have been closed, the performance has been very good: 6 swings, all winners averaging just a tad under 10 NQ points/swing, 1 contract/swing: +60 NQ points realized...
- however, the swing trade which is open, is underwater by about 17 points/contract, 3 contracts open: -51 NQ points unrealized...i am happy that i booked enough profits earlier in the week to cover the current drawdown...
- this is part of my style and is to be expected...when the trading vehicle moves against me and i begin to add size, i will experience a decent size drawdown...i am confident in my analysis that the NQ will hit many more swing highs going into the end of the year, and perhaps longer...i will ride this down swing out...the only thing that may get me to change my long term directional bias is a significant non-market related exogenous event...
- today, my 'BTD Index' model came very close to generating a long entry signal for the NDX, but the NDX was just a bit too strong...the NDX needs to close below the lower bollinger band in order for me to get long this systemic swing trading model...if the NDX closed below 1688ish today, an entry signal would have been generated:
- have a great weekend!
***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***
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