9/28/2009 11:30 update: NQ

• wow, the bulls are back in town...i am heavily position for their return, though i did not think they would bound back in so adamantly...
• in response to their quick return, i started monkeying around with my first sell level of 1726.50...i started looking a bit closer at the 15M chart and saw a minor pivot around 1725, so changed my offer from 1726.50 to a market order when the NQ was trading in 1722/23s around 10:08 am and got filled at 1722.25...
• +8.17 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• the impetus for the order change was fear...since the run up occurred so quickly, i was afraid it could drop back down just as quick...i am also long a full position in the ES via the 'SPY Gopher' model...i guess i wanted to reduce some exposure and take advantage of the quick run up...
• it is this type of dynamic which continues to effect my game...on many occasions, i lower my offer or raise my bid because i am afraid the NQ will not move to the level that i originally targeted...sometimes it works in my favor, and sometimes it doesn't...i don't have enough stats on this to determine if this order level change, mostly influenced by fear and somewhat influenced by re-analysis, is helping or hurting my discretionary performance...
• i am not sure if i even want to commit to finding out...i feel as if i have so many trading related things to attend to, that i just don't have the time to get some stats on whether discretionary swing trading plan changes are helping or hurting my performance...maybe i am just making excuses...this is something for me to think about...
• i am currently offering 1 NQZ09 at 1736.50 and 1 at 1746.50...
• i am currently bidding for 1 NQZ09 at 1713.50...if this fills, it won't bring my avg cost immeasurably down (1714.08), it will just get me bigger for in my view, the probable move back up to new swing highs...
• both the NQ and the ES are in my view, behaving quite bullishly...both found support at the previous mentioned levels of 1690 and 1035, and have now broken above friday's high (1709 and 1049.50), firmly putting in higher highs on the 15M intraday charts...the trend up today has been so strong, i can not find any meaningful pivots or lows on the 5M or the 15M charts of the NQ or the ES!!
• this move up is also occuring on essentially no news...yeah, there is some M&A this morning, but there is no economic data and no major earnings news...the upside move in the market in the absence of any major news catalyst is quite bullish in my opinion...
• how probable is it that both the NQ and the ES will see new swing highs by the end of this week? i don't know, but today's powertrend reversal to the upside after last weeks downdraft, increases the odds...
• i can't find any freely available links to reference this, but from the research i have followed over the years, the last few days of the current month, and the first few days of the new month, tend to be the best performing days of the month...i am not sure why this is the case...perhaps it has something to do with end-of-month money manager window dressing, or mutual fund inflows being quickly put to work, or something else...
• in any case, i have noticed this end of month and begining of month bullish tendency...it factors into my discretionary swing trading as well as some of my systemic trading models...
• this end of month and begining of the month bullish tendency, combined with the upside reversal of last weeks downdraft has me allowing for the increased possibility that we will at least test last weeks swing highs, and perhaps generate new swing highs by the end of this week...
• my 'SPY Gopher' model is due to be exited at the thursday's close...if new swing highs are generated this week and can stick, this model will generate some nice performance for me...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09, Long ESZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***