11/30/2009 update: i have lost my feel for this market

• i have lost my feel for this market...
• in addition to getting out of my 'turkey long' position on thursday (which would have stopped out on friday), i got chopped up in 3 additional discretionary day/swing trades on friday/monday...
• i have little confidence in an up or a down move sticking...
• since i have such low confidence, i am going to be very picky in establishing any discretionary swing trading positions or taking any systemic trading entry signals...
• i have no positions...
• congrats to anyone who has made money over the past few days with a plan that is reproducible...

Stop the proposed Financial Transaction Tax

• the proposed financial transaction tax continues to get some play in congress...now, paul krugman has jumped on board too...some politicians want wall street to pay for main street's recovery, so they want to tax any purchase of a financial asset and any sale of a financial asset at 0.25%...this would be 0.50% per round trip...$500 tax per $100,000 round trip...
• this would put me and most of the trader's i know out of business...
• short term traders provide liquidity and price discovery to all market participants...
• the traders i know did not cause this mess, so why penalize us?
• i am not responsible for the near collapse of the financial system, so it is not fair that congress's solution to paying for the cleanup is too tax me out of my job...
• the congressional stimulus packages of the past few years are meant to help put people back to work...i am all for that...but how is taxing me out of my job going to help achieve this objective?
• this tax would not just hurt shorter term traders, but longer term investors too (401k, 403b, IRA, etc)...
• my cpa, robert green, put together a petition to help stop this tax...please click on that link to contact your congressional reps and tell them not to pass this bill...i did...
• in addition to emailing my congressional reps (both house and senate), i also paid to have my three letters printed and hand delivered to them...supposedly this has a bigger influence then just emails...it only cost $9...
• we have to stop this tax...

11/26/2009 Thanksgiving Day Surprise: Dubai World defaults, sends global equity markets lower

• Dubai Debt Fears Hammer Stocks
• Dubai's Move on Debt Rattles Markets Worldwide
• who wants to trade on thanksgiving day? in order to manage risk, i had to...
• the money managment stop for the NQZ09 on my 'Turkey Long' model is 1749.00...however this stop is only good for the regular trading sessions of wed and fri of thanksgiving week, and on the following monday's open...
• well, upon seeing the dubai news and the major u.s. indices down around 2% on this thanksgiving morning, and recognizing that this type of headline has the capacity to get the bears all fired up, i called an audible and i sold my NQZ09 position (proxy for the 'Turkey Long' model) this morning at an avg price of 1760.58...
• this trade: -22.34 NQ points/contract, 3 contracts closed...
• the low of the wed night session in the NQ was 1746.50...if i was using overnight stops, i would have been stopped out at 1749.00...
• i am glad i closed my discretionary NQZ09 swing long yesterday...
• who knows how the NQ will trade during the regular friday day session...another headline release could come out and if percieved positiviely, could send the NQ back up to 1800...
• or another headline release could come out and if percieved negatively, could send the NQ down to 1700...
• in this environment, my sense is that the NQ may head lower...
• we shall see by monday's open if my early sale was prescient or stupid...
• since july, my systemic trading models have continued to fail, pushing their drawdown to 15+%...they performed exceedingly well during the 60% equity market collapse from the fall of 2007 through the spring of 2009...but since july, they have been awful and it has been a frustrating experience trading my systemic trading models...
• if the market continues to selloff, i will like to get back in for a discretionary swing trade...however, i do not know what level a selloff my bring the NQ down to, so right now i am not bidding for it...i will be watching though, and if i see a setup i like, i will begin to establish a discretionary swing long...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/25/2009 3:15 update: NQ

• well its 3:15 on wednesday of thanksgiving week, and the major stock indices are green, with the mid caps (EMD) leading up around 1.00%, the small caps (TF) lagging up about 0.10%, ES up about 0.50% and the NQ up about 0.40%...
• the ES has been leading the charge lately, and continues to bang its head on the 1110ish resistance level, while the NQ made its high last wednesday around 1813 and is now having a hard time moving beyond the 1800 whole number...
• though the friday after thanksgiving tends to be bullish, i am long the NQ via two strategies (discretionary swing trade and 'Turkey Long')...i am concerned that if the ES can not break above 1110ish on friday, then the NQ may have already peaked...i want to reduce some exposure and lock in some gains, so instead of holding the discretionary swing trade until the offer of 1807.50 is hit, i decided to sell it today at 1794.00 into the end of day runup...
• this trade: +12.50 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• i am still long 3 NQ contracts via the 'Turkey Long' model...if the money management stop is not hit, this trade is due to be exited on monday's open...however, if there is a big pop in the NQ on friday or during the sunday night session, i may scale out of it ahead of the monday morning model exit...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/24/2009 8:15 pm update: 'Turkey Long', NQ

• first off, happy thanksgiving to all of my u.s based readers....
• my 'Turkey Long' systemic trading model generated a long entry at today's close in the NDX...
• this model is based on the NDX historical trading behavior surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday...
• the model goes long on the close of tuesday of thanksgiving week, and if the money management stop is not hit, then the model exits the trade on the following monday's open...
• currently the stop is around 2.00%, and may vary a bit as it is influenced by the recent average true volatitlity in the NDX...

• here are some performance stats for this model:
• Model Tracking Vehicle=NDX
• Start Date=11/1/1985
• Number of Trades=24
• Average Trade Return=1.39%
• Average Winning Trade Return=1.57%
• Average Losing Trade Return=-0.55%
• Win Rate=92%
• Ratio of Average Win/Average Loss (RAWAL)=2.87
• Profit Factor=31.55
• this model has been hugely profitable over its lifetime, though the last few years the model has essentially been flat...perhaps the bullish tendency of the trading days surrounding the thanksgiving holiday are so widely known, that a critical number of market participants act on this tendency before hand and the edge has been neutralized...
• in any case, i am long 3 NQZ09 contracts for this model...i picked up 2 of the contracts during the trading session, and picked up the third at the 4pm close...avg entry price is 1782.92

• as far as the discretionary swing trade in the NQZ09, i am still long 1 contract at 1781.50...
• i continue to offer this contract out at 1807.50...if the bullish tendency surrounding the thanksgiving holiday plays out, i believe there is a good chance this order will fill by monday morning...
• no bids for more of the NQ at this time...however, if there was a decent selloff over the next few days, i will probably pick some more of the NQ up...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/19/2009 3:30 pm update: NQ

• what a mess...
• my discretionary swing trading tendency to always be long at least 1 contract, especially near the top of the daily upper trend channel is costing me too much money...
• earlier in the week i even considered buying some puts on the QQQQ's to hedge my exposure, but i didn't...
• i have worked my avg price in the NQZ09 down from 1809.00 to 1781.50, though it cost me too much to do so....
• as i mentioned earlier, i added a 2nd contract at 1791.50, and then during the day session i added a 3rd contract at 1770.25, bringing my avg cost to 1790.25...
• i was stopped out on the 3rd entry at 1763.75...
• this trade: -26.50 NQ points/contract...
• i added a new 3rd contract at 1764.00...this brings my avg cost to 1781.50...
• i sold this one at 1772.50...
• after the NQ rallied into the low 1770's, i placed an OCO with a target to 1776.50 and a stop at 1769.50...the stop was hit...
• this trade: -12.00 NQ points/contract...
• today: -15.83 NQ points/contract, 3 contracts closed...
• still long 1 NQZ09 at 1781.50...
• offering this out at 1807.50...
• no current bids...
• i think i have been overly influenced by the strong rallies of the summer and early fall...this has led to a fear of missing more of the up move...combined with an approach that has me getting bigger on moves down to work my avg cost lower, i am finding that this has led me to be overweighted the NQ during moves down, and relatively underweighted the NQ during moves up...
• i gave back a moderate amount of my summer and early fall discretionary swing trading profits, during the late october downdraft and during today's swoosh down...
• while i am still net profitable trading the NQ, i need to rethink my overall approach to swing trading the it on a discretionary basis...
• entering with some size when the swing begins, and then lightening up towards the top of the trendchannel and/or into resistance sounds like a much better plan...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk**

11/19/2009 9:00 am update: NQ

• i added a NQZ09 contract at 1791.50 during the premarket selloff...
• long 2 NQZ09 @ avg 1800.25/contract...
• i am recognizing that i have a tendency to nearly always have some long exposure to the NQ...i think this stems from a 'fear of missing' pyschological mindset that gets applied to my NQ discretionary swing trading...i also think its related to my belief that i can work my avg price down sufficiently enough to weather an averaged size downdraft...
• but what if the downdraft is not average sized, or suggests that intermediate term trend is changing from up to sideways or even down?
• i believe i need to re-evaluate how i trade the NQ discretionary swing position when the NQ is trading near its upper trendline/resistance...
• i am open to the possibility of an end of year melt up in the NQ and the ES...
• i am also aware of the bullish thanksgiving seasonality for the NDX from the close of next tuesday thru the open of the following monday...i even have a systemic trading model (Turkey Long) that will get me long the NQ for that time frame...
• however, i am becoming increasingly concerned that we may see a selloff in the NQ over the next days or after the thanksgiving bullish seasonality passess...
• if the NQ does head lower into tuesday of next week, i think the 1750 area is a reasonable target...ES may test the 1070 area...
• the 1700-1725 area on the NQ may be a reasonable target if there is a post thanksgiving selloff...
• i am going to be reducing my risk by my lowering my avg price and looking to add more of the NQZ09 at lower levels...
• offering out 1 contract at 1798.50 and 1811.50...
• no bids at this time, but i will be watching and waiting for a good long setup...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk**

Off Topic: Thomas Friedman's 'What they Really Believe'

Off Topic: Thomas Friedman's 'What they Really Believe'

11/17/2009 1:30 pm update: NQ

• yesterday morning, lunch and early afternoon looked like a trend day, so i moved my limit order up and got in at 1809.00...
• NQZ09 then ran up to a new high on the day, but sold off into the close...
• offering this contract out at 1828.50...
• bidding 1776.50 for one contract...
• lately, i have been putting in a lot of effort building my discretionary daytrading skills at team trading (fka velez capital management)...i am happy to report i am seeing some progress on this front...
• my focus on discretionary daytrading has led to a decrease in posts and market commentary on this blog...i am looking forward to when i can post here more frequently...
• i hope everyones trading is going well...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk**

11/15/2009 8 pm update: NQ

• the NQZ09 offer i placed on wed 11/11 for 1797.50, was filled during tonights session...
• this trade: +18.75 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• on the above chart, tradestation is not showing the trade history correctly...the chart reports i still have 1 open NQZ09 contract when in fact i am flat the NQZ09...

• currently bidding for 1 contract at 1753.50, just above the rising 200ma on the 15M chart and at 1717.50...
• i am also bidding for 1 contract at 1785.00...if this order is not filled during the rest of the overnight session, then i may change it during monday's regular session...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk**

11/11/2009 4:00 pm update: NQ, Narrow Bar NDX #11

• picked up a NQZ09 contract at 1778.75...i was not patient enough for my 1773.50 bid to be hit...the low of the swing was 1772.00
• offering this contract out at 1797.50...
• bidding 1745 and 1717.50...
• added a newly built Narrow Range Bar systemic trading model for the NDX called 'Narrow Bar NDX #11'...
• this model is unique for me because its stop is extremely tight: 0.10% below the entry price...
• because the entries are made at the close of the day the signal is generated, the model will stop out essentially on any gap down the following day...
• due to this type of stop, i will be trading this model with a minimal amount of NQ contracts (1-2) as opposed to my usual position size for NDX systemic trading models (3-6 contracts)....
• starting from 11/1/1985, the model generated 324 trades, has a win rate of only 27%, but the RAWAL (Ratio of Average Win divided by Average Loss) is 7.01, which yields a Profit Factor of 2.57...
• this model replaces the 'Narrow Bar #1 NDX' model...that model was built using a 'Range' filter when it should have been using a 'TrueRange' filter...
• the equity curve for the new model is below:

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/11/2009 9:30 am update: NQ

• with the ES gapping up to the 1100 resistance level during the pre-market, i sold my only NQZ09 contract at 1785.75...i was originally targeting 1796.50, but i think the ES and the NQ might stall for a bit or head down at the ES 1100 level...
• this trade: +19.25 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• bidding at 1773.50, 1743.50 and 1717.50...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/10/2009 4:15 pm update: NQ

• picked up 1 NQZ09 at 1766.50 during this morning's pullback...
• offering this contract out at 1796.50...
• i am working on holding my NQZ09 discretionary swing trading contracts for larger swings than i had been targeting while trading during the july through october period...
• bidding 1743.50 and 1717.50 for additional contracts...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/8/2009 8:30 pm update: NQ

• sold my only NQZ09 contract at 1736.50 around 8:15pm during the sunday overnight session...
• this trade: +22.50 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• bidding for 1 NQZ09 at each of the following levels: 1721.50, 1702.50, 1657.50...
• no offers at this time..

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

TraderFeed Blog: Heart Rate Variability (HRV): Enhancing the Trader's Self Control

• From Brett Steenbarger's TraderFeed blog: Heart Rate Variability (HRV): Enhancing the Trader's Self Control

11/6/2009 9:45 am update: NQ

• picked up 1 NQZ09 pre-market at 1714.00
• offering this contract out at 1736.50...
• bidding 1696.50 and 1657.50

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

Trader's Narrative Blog: End of Year Seasonality After 10% Gain Study: Bullish Nov 1 - Dec 31 2009

• Trader's Narrative Blog: End of Year Seasonality After 10% Gain Study: bullish implications for Nov 1 - Dec 31 2009

'BTD Index' generated an Exit Signal for Today's Close, 11/5/2009: books first loss (about 1 point) after 6 winning trades in a row.

• 'BTD Index' generated an exit signal today, booking about 1 point loss...
• after 5 winning trades in a row since june, and 6 since 12/07, there was bound to be a loser...however, 1 point is nothing to worry about...
• the equity curve is essentially at its all time high...
• i trade this model with the NQ...i was supposed to wait until the 4pm close to exit this trade, but today i exited during the morning ramp up, thinking that the am strength would not hold...the early exit was at 1713.75, and the 4pm closing exit would have been around 1719, so i missed out on about 5 NQ points here...

11/5/2009 4:15 pm update: NQ

• tone of the market felt very different today, it felt very bullish...
• on the heals of a bearish close yesterday, and without any major news catalysts, the NQ rallied up from an overnight low of 1670ish to a day session high of 1720ish, a 50 point spread...
• market sees a lot of buying ahead of the jobs report tomorrow morning pre-open...
• are the bulls coming back, or did the bears step away?
• the NQ did pull back from its morning highs, but not the 1% i was looking for....
• still flat the NQ...
• my recent near term bearishness has led me to reduce my long biased position size...ironically, this is occuring right around the time the NQ has started to show some increased bullishness, and provided some opportunities to pick up some NQ on recent dips...perhaps this is only knowable in hindsight...
• today's action is reducing some of my near term bearishness...
• because of today's relative bullishness, i will be bidding a bit more aggresively for the NQ: 1 contract at 1703.50, 1682.50 and 1657.50...
• i am hoping for weakness off tomorrow's jobs report...
• if the market shows strength after the jobs report, i will look to buy a pulback...

11/5/2009 10:45 am update: NQ

• so much for my thought yesterday that the NQ would see a narrow range day with a downside bias today...
• now, with the ES trading up to the flat 200ma on the 60M chart, and the NQ trading up to the flat 200ma on the 60M chart, and just past the 10:30 rt, with the financials lagging and tomorrow's pre-open jobs report, i sold the last NQZ09 at 1718.25...
• this trade: +32.46 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• i was trying to hold until 1725, but i just couldn't...
• i might look to buy this contract back later in the day just above 1700...
• i think we will see a meaningful selloff of at least 1% sometime later today...
• no current offers or bids...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

'Halloween' systemic trading model generates a loss.

• my 'Halloween' model posted a long entry signal on the close of trading on wed 10/28/2009...
• this model is based on the historical bullish trading behavior of the NDX during the last few days of october thru the first few days of november...
• unfortunately, the model's money management stop was hit on monday 11/2/2009...
• the theoretical trade loss was 1.39%...
• since i was already long a bunch of NQZ09 for a discretionary swing trade, i did not take the entry signal on wed 10/28...however, on monday 11/2/2009, i did enter a small position in the NQZ09 just above the model's stop....i was stopped out, but only for 3.75 NQ points (-0.24%)...

'SPY Gopher' generated an Exit Signal at the Close on Monday 11/2/2009

• on monday 11/2/2009, 'SPY Gopher' generated an exit signal...
• the model's theoretical position posted a 2.41% loss, which is a bit greater than the average losing trade (1.79%)...
• the actual trade (ESZ09) posted a 1.54% loss...i exited a portion of the position early, which turned out to be favorable...
• this is the second loss for the model in a row...
• 'end of month/begining of month' weakness has been a theme for a few months now (august/sept, sept/oct, oct/nov) in the SPY/ES...

Research Project List

• adding this to my Research Project list: BDO: Breadth Divergence Osicllator by CSS Analytics
• check Andromeda and Pegasus systems on intraday timeframes for ES and NQ

11/4/2009 3:30 pm update: NQ

• i suspect tomorrow will be a narrow range day, with perhaps a downward bias as market participants await the friday jobs report...
• a re-analysis of where the NQZ09 is at, plus weak financials and weak small caps, led me to let go of the just added contract...
• sold 1 NQZ09 at 1695.75...
• this trade: +9.96 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• today: 8.19 NQ points/contract, 2 contracts closed...
• long 1 NQZ09 at 1685.79...
• offering this contract out at 1725.00
• bidding for 1 contract at 1661.50...
• if market participants do not like the friday payroll report, that could be the catalyst to send the NQ to 1600ish and the ES below 1000 over the coming few weeks....

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/4/2009 2:45 pm update: NQ

• during the post FOMC flurry down, i picked up 1 NQZ09 at 1683.25...the low of that swing was 1682.25...
• now long 2 NQZ09 at avg 1685.79...
• resistance for the rest of the day is at the whole number 1700.00
• offering 1 out at: 1707.50 and 1725.00
• bidding for 1 at 1661.50...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/4/2009 11:30 am update: NQ

• heading into 10:30 rt, just below the 1700 whole number, and below the declining 200ma on the 15M chart, i lowered the NQZ09 1705 offer to market, and was filled at 1694.75...
• the high so far for the morning was 1700 even...
• this trade:  +6.42 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• if i am going to hold multiple contracts on a move against me, i have to get better at holding multiple contracts when the move goes in my favor...
• i only have 1 more NQZ09 contract (avg entry is 1688.33)...my current target is 1725.00...if i were to hold for this target, that would be +36.67 NQ point profit...
• before i can get good at holding multiple contracts that are going in my direction for a discretionary swing trade, i have to get good at holding 1 contract....this contract will be my practice...i am a bit better at holding multiple contracts for systemic swing trades that are going in my favor...
• bidding at 1682.50 and at 1657.50...
• FOMC announcement at 2:15 could shake things up...
• i am still wary of the intermediate term, and would not be surprised if the NQ dropped to the 1600 level and the ES drop to 980ish before thanksgiving...this is not a prediction, just a possibility....
• i am still bullish longer term...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/3/2009 9:30 am update: NQ

• yesterday morning, i sold 1 NQZ09 at 1683.50...
• that trade: -4.87 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed...
• offering 1 contract at: 1705.00 and 1725.00
• no bids....
• long 2 NQZ09 at avg 1688.33...
• not sure if the NQ and the ES need to selloff more before a more sustained rally...
• not sure if that rally will take the NQ and the ES to new swing highs...
• i am uncertain as to the probable near term direction....if i had to make a decision, i would say we go lower before we go higher...
• i am still bullish longer term....

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

11/1/2009 9:45 am update: NQ

• thursday's rally helped me lighten up on the NQZ09 discretionary swing position...
• i sold another NQZ09 contract on friday morning pre-open at 1706...
• this trade: -22 NQ points/contract...
• i added another contract during friday's day session at 1683.50...
• i also added another contract during sunday's overnight session just above the session low, at 1653.50...
• i am now long 3 NQZ09 at avg 1688.33...
• offering out 1 contract at the following levels: 1683.50, 1705, 1725...
• no current bids...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***