Wednesday, November 11, 2009

11/11/2009 4:00 pm update: NQ, Narrow Bar NDX #11

  • picked up a NQZ09 contract at 1778.75...i was not patient enough for my 1773.50 bid to be hit...the low of the swing was 1772.00
  • offering this contract out at 1797.50...
  • bidding 1745 and 1717.50...
  • added a newly built Narrow Range Bar systemic trading model for the NDX called 'Narrow Bar NDX #11'...
  • this model is unique for me because its stop is extremely tight: 0.10% below the entry price...
  • because the entries are made at the close of the day the signal is generated, the model will stop out essentially on any gap down the following day...
  • due to this type of stop, i will be trading this model with a minimal amount of NQ contracts (1-2) as opposed to my usual position size for NDX systemic trading models (3-6 contracts)....
  • starting from 11/1/1985, the model generated 324 trades, has a win rate of only 27%, but the RAWAL (Ratio of Average Win divided by Average Loss) is 7.01, which yields a Profit Factor of 2.57...
  • this model replaces the 'Narrow Bar #1 NDX' model...that model was built using a 'Range' filter when it should have been using a 'TrueRange' filter...
  • the equity curve for the new model is below:

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

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