Thursday, November 19, 2009

11/19/2009 9:00 am update: NQ

  • i added a NQZ09 contract at 1791.50 during the premarket selloff...
  • long 2 NQZ09 @ avg 1800.25/contract...
  • i am recognizing that i have a tendency to nearly always have some long exposure to the NQ...i think this stems from a 'fear of missing' pyschological mindset that gets applied to my NQ discretionary swing trading...i also think its related to my belief that i can work my avg price down sufficiently enough to weather an averaged size downdraft...
  • but what if the downdraft is not average sized, or suggests that intermediate term trend is changing from up to sideways or even down?
  • i believe i need to re-evaluate how i trade the NQ discretionary swing position when the NQ is trading near its upper trendline/resistance...
  • i am open to the possibility of an end of year melt up in the NQ and the ES...
  • i am also aware of the bullish thanksgiving seasonality for the NDX from the close of next tuesday thru the open of the following monday...i even have a systemic trading model (Turkey Long) that will get me long the NQ for that time frame...
  • however, i am becoming increasingly concerned that we may see a selloff in the NQ over the next days or after the thanksgiving bullish seasonality passess...
  • if the NQ does head lower into tuesday of next week, i think the 1750 area is a reasonable target...ES may test the 1070 area...
  • the 1700-1725 area on the NQ may be a reasonable target if there is a post thanksgiving selloff...
  • i am going to be reducing my risk by my lowering my avg price and looking to add more of the NQZ09 at lower levels...
  • offering out 1 contract at 1798.50 and 1811.50...
  • no bids at this time, but i will be watching and waiting for a good long setup...

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk**

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