'Payrolls NDX' is an Express Train with NO STOPS today! The trade is still a loss though and the model remains suspect.

'Payrolls NDX' is an Express Train with NO STOPS today! However the trade is a still a loss and the model remains suspect.

The Modeled position (NDX) posted a -0.36% loss, which is better than the Average Losing Trades return of -0.63%. The actual Trading position (NQU09) posted a -0.53% loss (including commissions), somewhat worse than the model.

The position was close to getting stopped out, down about 1.5% at 1030 am. However it then based into lunch, rallied up to its gap down opening level, hit a new high for the day in the afternoon, and closed just below that high of the day. Today's action saw the NDX carve out a nice bottoming tail on it's daily chart.

However, the trade is still a loss and the model remains suspect. I will have to re-evaluate the robustness of this model and make an adjustment to my trading plan:

• reduce the position size for future entry signals
• rebuild the model
• stop trading the model