'NDX 1st DOM' generated a Long Entry Signal for Wednesday's Close, 7/1/2009

'NDX 1st DOM' generated a Long Entry Signal for Wednesday's Close, 7/1/2009. This model is based on the behavior of the NDX on the 1st calendar Day of the Month (DOM). It is due to be exited at today's (Thursday's) Close unless its Money Management Stop is hit intraday. Due to the July 4th holiday, I believe the market closes early today (1pm NY time). I have to double check on this though. If anyone can confirm this, please let me know.

The model uses a very tight Money Management Stop, currently 0.50% below the Entry Price. The pre-market futures are trading down about 0.4% right now, so we are going to need to see a positive market response to the closely watched Payroll report due to be released at 830am. A negative response to the report will probably stop this position out at the open, and quite possibly for more than then modeled 0.50%.

As we can see from the Equity Curve chart shown above, the model is currently trading just below it's all time high.

Here are some of the model's Performance Statistics:

• Model Tracking Vehicle=NDX
• Start Date=11/1/1985
• Number of Trades=113
• Average Trade Return=0.40%
• Average Winning Trade Return=1.24%
• Average Losing Trade Return=-0.46%
• Win Rate=51%
• Average Win/Average Loss=2.7
• Profit Factor=2.85

The win rate is only 51%, but the average winning trade (1.24%) is nearly 3x as large as the average losing trade (-0.46%).

Disclosure: Long the NQU09.

Disclosure: The performance results shown above are for Model analysis purposes and do not include commission or slippage. The model is built on data from the NDX, but I trade the model with the NQ e-mini. Actual trading results from the NQ usually differ from the model results of the NDX, with the NQ showing somewhat weaker performance data. Nonetheless, I still trade this model with the NQ and when executed according to the plan, it has generated consistent profitability for me.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security***