QuantifiableEdges Best of 2009

QuantifiableEdges Best of 2009

Todd Hanson: An Introduction to Mastering Forex

Dr. Todd Hanson is the head of forex trading at Team Trading LLC.

The following is a MoneyShow video of Todd giving an outline of the Team Trading Forex program and some of the trading strategies within the program:

Todd Hanson: An Introduction to Mastering Forex

Wishing everyone a happy, healthy and prosperous new year.

Oliver Velez: Alcoa (AA) the next double

Oliver Velez is the founder of Team Trading, LLC, where I am a proprietary equity and forex trader. Here is a recent video where he describes an upcoming play in Alcoa (AA):

Off Topic: Inspired Bicycles - Danny MacAskill April 2009

12/24/2009 9:30 am update: NQ, 'XMany'

• i follow a few 3rd party oscillators...on a variety of time frames from intraday to weekly, they are now showing overbought conditions...the NQ is also trading into upper trend channel resistance...
• though my 'XMany' model is on a buy signal, i decided to exit my current position into this morning's gap up...
• i will be looking to get back into the 'XMany' position if the NQ sells off or bases for a few days...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***

ECRI: 'Recovery and Jobs Growth are Underway'

ECRI: 'Recovery and Jobs Growth are Underway'

"...the very literal near-term reading is that we have a recovery. It is not going to falter in the next few quarters, deflation is off the table, and we don’t have surging inflation in terms of consumer prices. For the time being, that’s not a bad position to be in..." -Lakshman Acuthan, 12/22/09

Financial Transaction Tax

• the financial transaction tax is getting some more play...
• my cpa, robert green, has updated his petition to congress to stop the tax...
• please contact your congressional reps to voice your opposition to this tax...

12/22/2009: 10:45 am update: 'XMany', NQ, ES, EMD, TF

• some of the major indices have finally broken out (to the upside) of the recent ranges: NQ and EMD...
• though some are still banging their heads at resistance: ES and TF...
• i believe ES and TF will follow the NQ and the EMD to the upside...
• this run could last until the first few days of january...

• my 'XMany' model gave a long entry signal last night for the NDX...this model is based on the seasonal bullish tendency surrounding the christmas and new year holidays...
• rob hanna over at quantifiable edges, posted a study based on bullish behavior surrounding the xmas holiday....
• based on my 'XMany' signal, yesterday i went long the NQ at 1826.25...there is a money management stop (currently around 1773.00) and a trailing stop (much lower)...if neither of these stops are hit, the position is due to be exited on the close of tuesday january 5, 2010...
• here is the equity curve (each trade is made with a theoretical $100,000 worth of capital):

'XMany' Model Performance Stats

• Model Tracking Vehicle=NDX
• Start Date=11/1/1985
• Profit Factor=5.74
• Number of Trades=24
• Win Rate=71%
• Average Trade Return=2.70%
• Average Winning Trade Return=4.62%
• Average Losing Trade Return=-1.95%
• Ratio of Average Win/Average Loss (RAWAL)=2.37

Disclosure: The performance results shown above are for Model analysis purposes and do not include commission or slippage. The model is built on data from the NDX, but I trade the model with the NQ e-mini. Actual trading results from the NQ usually differ from the model results of the NDX, with the NQ showing slightly weaker performance data.

Disclosure: Long NQH10.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***

David Brooks: The Protocol Society

David Brooks: The Protocol Society

12/17/2009: NQ, ES, XLF

• well wednesday's FOMC rate announcement did not act as a catalyst to move the NQ and the ES above resistance...instead it led to selling on wednesday and on thursday...
• so the major indices remain mired in a narrow 6 week base...
• feels like the bulls want to get going for an end of year ramp, yet the bears keep beating the advances back...
• with the selloff in Citigroup today, the bank index (XLF) keeps on dripping lower towards support...contrary dynamic with the XLF trading towards the bottom of its range while the ES trades towards the top of its range...
• one way or another, i think we will see a move out of this range by the second week of january...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***

12/15/2009

• the NQ and the ES 'feel' like they want to break above their current resistance levels (NQH10 around 1815 and ESH10 around 1115)...
• with positive historical december opex week, and positive end of december seasonality, tomorrow's FOMC rate announcement at 2:15pm might be the catalyst to get the indices over these levels...
• if they do pop, i can envision them running up around 2-4%...
• however, many of the short term and intermediate term oscillators i follow are getting overbought, so i believe a smallish upside break in mid to late december will lead to a larger downside move sometime in january...
• for a discretionary swing trade, i will probably be looking to get long the NQ after the january move down...i am not sure if i will play a decemeber break above resistance to the longside in the NQ as a discretionary swing trade...
• my systemic swing trading models continue to get chopped up...
• i believe i may have found a setup and money management strategy that fits my personality over at 'team trading' (fka velez capital managment, llc)...i have been working on it for the past few weeks and have seen some positive results...still, there is much work to be done here...
• additionaly, i have joined the forex division of 'team trading' led by dr. todd hanson, and am currently going thru the initial 7 day training...
• lots of juggling right now: systemic swing trading the u.s. stock indices for my account, discretionary swing trading the NQ for my account, discretionary daytrading u.s. equities for my prop account, and discretionary/systemic swingtrading/daytrading forex for my prop account...yes, my head is spinning a bit...
• good trading to everyone!

NY Times: Mortgage Rates 1900 - 2009

Break Time 2: Eminem's 'Lose Yourself'

this one gets me pumped...

Break Time 1: "Bridge Over Troubled Water" - 25th Anniversary The Rock & Roll Hall Of Fame Concert

i was really moved by this performance, especially the end...art really belted it out...

12/9/2009 NDX OU generated an entry signal for today's close.

My 'NDX OU' systemic trading model generated an entry signal for today's close. The NDX put in an outside upside day today. In other words, today's low was lower then yesterday's low, and today's close was higher then yesterday's high. There are two additional filters as well.

The dynamic stop is currently set to 0.90%. If this stop is not hit, then this position is due to be exited on Friday's close. This model was recently rebuilt, and this is the first trade of the new build. The historical equity curve is shown above.

Model Performance Stats:

• Model Tracking Vehicle=NDX
• Start Date=11/1/1985
• Number of Trades=71
• Average Trade Return=0.66%
• Win Rate=68%
• Ratio of Average Win/Average Loss (RAWAL)=1.74
• Profit Factor=3.62

Disclosure: The performance results shown above are for Model analysis purposes and do not include commission or slippage. The model is built on data from the NDX, but I trade the model with the NQ e-mini. Actual trading results from the NQ usually differ from the model results of the NDX, with the NQ showing slightly weaker performance data.

Disclosure: Long NQZ09.

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk ***

12/9/2009 NQ update: nothing happening

• i use a variety of indicators and oscillators to provide an edge in what direction to trade a discretionary swing position in the NQ....right now nearly all of the indicators/oscillators i look at are neutral...
• i have not been in a NQ discretionary swing position since the begining of thanksgiving week...
• i am proud of my patience...

***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

David Brooks: An Innovation Agenda

David Brooks: An Innovation Agenda

ECRI: More frequent business cycles ahead

ECRI: More frequent business cycles ahead