tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23505125719140658762012-02-16T20:00:13.142-05:00<br> <br> i suggest that successful trading requires a certain level of two things: cognitive intelligence (IQ) and emotional intelligence (EQ). <br> <br> <br> We use our cognition to 'plan the trade' and our emotion to 'trade the plan'. <br> <br> <br> the greater these two skillsets are, and the more in balance they are with each other, the greater the chance of trading success and ultimately trading mastery.Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.comBlogger3281100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-52465042705377655132011-11-19T21:28:00.001-05:002011-11-20T18:24:24.188-05:00

From John Mauldin's 'Print or Perish' post (italics are mine): "...Germany is in a game where the costs of leaving the euro, or a real euro break-up, are extremely high. But the costs of bailing out the profligate members of the Eurozone are also extremely high. Either way the cost is formidable. It is not a choice of whether they will bear a huge cost burden, but just what form that burden

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-14652226609954755352011-11-17T20:28:00.001-05:002011-11-19T21:38:43.020-05:00

On Wednesday, my entry stop was triggered in the FAZ. I am now long 2 units (out of a possible 10), at $43.71. I am offering out 1 lot in the high $60s and 1 lot in the high $70s. I will watch the chart and the headlines out of Europe for opportunities to add to or to lighten up my current position. I will become interested in FAS in the $20s. Disclosure: Long FAZ. ***

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-78448976795742669392011-11-17T20:00:00.001-05:002011-11-17T20:15:18.194-05:00

Words of a euro doomsayer have new resonance

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-66753110532045695542011-11-14T20:14:00.001-05:002011-11-15T19:42:35.817-05:00

ECB as the European Lender of Last Resort? In Favor of Silvio Berlusconi Resigning? Be careful what you wish for.

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-6456621505342332122011-11-09T20:22:00.001-05:002011-11-09T20:30:01.215-05:00

Two weeks ago there was nothingness, and tonight there is somethingness. Back then I did not like the setups in FAS or in FAZ. Tonight I do. Last Friday, I began to feel that the headline risk out of Europe was going to increase, so I took a very small position in the FAZ. The daily chart had bounced off support around 37, but there was really nothing else going on. I want the market/stock to

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-90317835405569658452011-10-25T20:12:00.001-04:002011-10-25T21:32:09.909-04:00

Sometimes doing nothing is just as important as doing something. Right now, I am doing nothing. Disclosure: No positions in any of the securities mentioned. ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk...my positions my change at any time without

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-16734106802700248302011-10-19T20:31:00.000-04:002011-10-19T21:30:10.302-04:00

I just sold all of my FAS and cancelled all of my FAS buy orders. The more I read about the fundamentals of the financial sector going forward, the more I am convinced that the FAS will not return to its post crash high of 40ish even if the SP500 gets back to 1500 over the next few years (which I don't see happening either). After the SP500 and the FAS bottomed in March 2009, the FAS ran up to

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-11873249938894130242011-10-17T19:50:00.000-04:002011-10-17T19:57:29.338-04:00

Yesterday I was pretty bullish on the financials based on numerous technicals that I monitor. My only caveat was if European sovereign debt concerns began to mount. Well this morning, Germany shot down a swift resolution to the crisis. So at 8:01am, I changed my FAS sell from limit 13.65 to limit 12.45 and was filled at 12.50. I am still long 2 lots at an average cost of 10.30, and am bidding

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-63374614731194020332011-10-16T16:49:00.002-04:002011-10-17T07:43:53.590-04:00

In my view, the odds continue to grow that the Financials have put in a short to intermediate term low. This week, the FAS put in a higher swing high on the daily chart, the SP500 has made a marginal new swing high, the Volatility Index has broken down below support at the 30 level, and the US Dollar Index has given up all of the gains of its recent breakout. And though the market has been short

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-16465554187684360442011-10-11T19:35:00.000-04:002011-10-11T19:35:36.330-04:00

As I continue to trade the financials via the FAS and the FAZ, I am reading more about their fundamental issues going forward. The overall tone of the news and regulations is that the financials will be much more regulated, and will rely more on fee and commission income and less on trading income. This could impact the longer term profitability and the profit growth of the industry, and thus the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-50263787528240131972011-10-09T14:48:00.001-04:002011-10-09T14:50:58.722-04:00

I haven't commented on the other side of my brain lately, the emotional side. Emotionally, I am trying to stay focused and relaxed. I am not trying to force the trade, and am just watching the market action and the news flow, and then responding in a manner that is consistent with my beliefs and my plan. For 12 years, I sat in front of my trading screens nearly all day, and had very good

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-34027893551453893222011-10-09T14:31:00.000-04:002011-10-09T14:35:43.225-04:00

On Tuesday I had open orders to sell 1 lot of FAS at 11.65, 15.65 and 19.65. I began weighing the possibility of a continued downtrend in the FAS, which would suggest selling somewhere below the declining 20 MA is warranted (11.65) vs the possibility of Europe putting together a $3-5 trillion dollar fund to address their sovereign debt issues, which in my view would send the financials rocketing

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-90325003244366306512011-10-04T21:12:00.000-04:002011-10-04T21:14:12.904-04:00

Three European banks (DB, UBS, BCS) have stopped making new swing lows, and in some cases are making new swing highs. After reviewing this, I have changed my mind and will replace the FAS sell order at 12.65 limit with 19.65 limit. I need to work on holding a piece of my position for larger gains. I believe that a majority of the current pessimism towards the US financials is related to

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-20633808088814248942011-10-04T20:11:00.001-04:002011-10-04T20:17:51.833-04:00

Yesterday I edited my FAS entry order for a second lot, such that I got filled at 10.55 around 8:01 am. I got filled on a third lot at 9.35 just before the market closed. I had an entry order for a fourth lot at 8.35, and today's low was 8.43, so I just missed that one. I am currently long 3 lots at an average of 10.32, just above the 10.16 after hours close. I am currently offering 1 lot at

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-50443249898073569772011-10-01T19:33:00.000-04:002011-10-01T23:22:44.020-04:00

I generally find that most economists are useless and do not add anything of value to the conversation. Paying attention to lagging indicators only tells me where I have been (ie, revisions to Q Economic activity), kind of like looking into a rear view mirror. Paying attention to coincident indicators (ie, Monthly Retail Sales) only tells me where I currently am, and any fool can do that. But

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-50817076063626561182011-09-29T22:41:00.001-04:002011-09-29T22:41:35.062-04:00

Changed the logic on the FAS entry order, and was filled at 8:00 am this morning at 11.25. Germany voted to increase the funding for Greece, and the market took that as an incremental positive. I have added an entry stop limit order for a second FAS lot at just above today's high. I am not sure why, but I am feeling a bit more optimistic about the financials. I have placed a FAS exit limit

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-423950538589490322011-09-28T20:43:00.003-04:002011-09-28T20:45:15.693-04:00

As I mentioned yesterday, it looked like the FAS was getting ready to generate a daily swing sell, and the FAZ was getting ready to generate a daily swing buy. Well today, both of those setups were triggered. The FAS sell is circled in red, and the FAZ buy is circled in green: Since I am still on the fence about the the market impact of a possible $3-5 Trillion dollar

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-76924524991215991262011-09-27T21:00:00.000-04:002011-09-27T21:28:45.955-04:00

Trade maintenance is important and I got sloppy. Last night after catching up on the day's market activity, and realizing that the $3-5 Trillion dollar fund to support European sovereign debt issuers and holders, might be a game changer, I thought I had cancelled my order to sell my single lot of the FAS in the mid 12's. Well as it turned out, I didnt cancel the order and it was filled near the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-1202147439903078542011-09-26T19:45:00.002-04:002011-09-26T23:06:25.370-04:00

The always prescient Todd Harrison of Minyanville.com discusses the possible ramifications of a $3-5 trillion fund to backstop European sovereign debt issuers and holders. Is this more medicine to mask symptoms or a cure of the disease? To me it sounds like medicine, but of such strength, that it might begin to provide some intermediate to long term optimism for the financials. I am long 1 lot

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-51700526798835877812011-09-25T23:47:00.000-04:002011-09-25T23:47:04.389-04:00

Help Wanted: "Has our leadership lost its mind? Do these people go home on weekends to some offshore island, where everyone’s retirement fund is doing fine, everyone’s kids have jobs and no one’s mortgage is under water? Where is the urgency? This is code red. We are facing a possible global financial contagion triggered by European banks choking with sovereign debt spreading their woes to

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-58475163338190528842011-09-25T19:08:00.000-04:002011-09-25T19:24:44.830-04:00

Back on 9/20/11, I wrote that recent history suggested that when the US Dollar Index, rallies, the SP500 trends sideways at best, and down at worst. At that time, the US Dollar Index was breaking out of a 6 month range. Now the range break continue to the upside. I believe this strongly suggests that the SP500 will continue in its sideways range at best, or downtrend at worst. Looking at

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-67220451815612664112011-09-22T20:06:00.000-04:002011-09-22T20:10:25.121-04:00

My profitable exit order was hit yesterday for the FAZ at 63.65. I considered getting longer on a move above the high made on 9/20, but decided against it as the there wasn't enough of a pullback on the daily chart to justify the move. There might have been enough on an intraday chart, but I was focusing on the daily. This morning in the premarket, I purchased 1 lot of FAS at 10.52. I am

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-4434114316729284302011-09-18T20:04:00.002-04:002011-09-18T20:04:39.755-04:00

Started a new long FAZ position with a single lot at 53.65, which is towards the bottom portion of the recent 6 week range. I am currently offering this lot at 63.65, which is below recent resistance in the 67 area. I really enjoyed attending iFundTraders recent trading seminar in Boston. It was fun to see old friends and to bring an IT colleague with me. It was great to see Oliver Velez again

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-25796278505953229362011-09-14T21:01:00.000-04:002011-09-14T21:33:39.707-04:00

I added another condition for the FAZ entry order, such that if it drops to the lower portion of its recent range or if it breaks a bit above Monday's high, I will enter with 1 lot. Some analytical highlights from Todd Harrison's always insightful and instructive daily column over at Minyanville.com: The trick to the European debt "trade" is to avoid ad-hoc, one-off

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-59846330565577186532011-09-13T21:31:00.000-04:002011-09-14T21:01:41.342-04:00

I profitably exited the FAZ yesterday, with one lot going in the pre-market, and the other lot going in the aftermarket (although the chart shows the second lot going out today, which is not correct). I currently have an entry stop limit a little bit above today's high. Disclosure: No positions in the securities mentioned. ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-83925883704500972452011-09-11T16:35:00.000-04:002011-09-11T16:36:00.620-04:00

I believe that the news flow for financials continues to be poor, but not poor enough to suggest long term buys are in order yet. I will continue to trade the financials from both sides, until i believe that a longer term bottom is being put into place. In my view, that may not occur for another 6-30 months (yeah, that's a large window)! German dissent magnifies uncertainty in Europe French

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-57753160105562094772011-09-10T15:00:00.000-04:002011-09-10T16:36:00.109-04:00

The US Dollar Index is breaking out of its recent range, but does that imply a high odds move in the SP500 in a specific direction? When the US Dollar Index rallied from mid 2008 - early 2009, the SP500 (SPY as proxy), dropped. When the US Dollar Index rallied from late 2009 - mid 2010, the SP500 chopped sideways in a sloppy action. Now that the Dollar Index has broken out of 6 month range, if

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-60605298846609841072011-09-09T20:36:00.001-04:002011-09-09T20:41:25.896-04:00

Stock Traders Almanac: Sector Seasonality is on Track Todd Harrison: The Market is speaking, are you listening?  and this was written two weeks ago! ECRI: WLI ticks up, but growth rate weakens Stock Traders Almanac: Hemline Index still Bearish

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-42551177853628174592011-09-09T20:11:00.001-04:002011-09-09T20:11:43.198-04:00

The FAZ entry stop was hit at 59.55. Currently looking sell half the lot at 67.65, and the other half lot at 72.65. Disclosure: Long FAZ. ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or anyone else to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk...my positions my change at any time

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-12119612945192348442011-09-08T21:05:00.002-04:002011-09-08T21:07:44.887-04:00

I have placed a stop limit order for Friday for the FAS and for the FAZ, just above today's highs. If the financials move outside of today's range, and this move does not occur on an opening gap, then at least one of the orders should get hit, and I will be long one of these vehicles. If the move does occur on an opening gap, then one of the orders might get filled. Profit Targets have not been

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-29123804942274770322011-09-06T19:43:00.004-04:002011-09-06T19:59:11.082-04:00

Exited FAZ in the premarket this morning for a decent 20+% gain. Currently looking to enter FAS on a pullback into the low 10s... Watching FAZ for another potential entry as well, but will wait for the chart to set up. Disclosure: No positions in the securities mentioned. ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a recommendation for you or

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-87965725856773058672011-09-06T06:46:00.001-04:002011-09-06T06:46:41.310-04:00

Reluctantly, Europe Inches Closer to a Fiscal Union European Banks Under Assault in Market Reminiscent of 2008

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-69559664439375795702011-09-05T09:52:00.000-04:002011-09-05T17:38:29.142-04:00

it is my belief that the financials will continue to be a tell for the longer term direction of the overall market, with the SP 500 eventually moving in the same direction as the financials, though the financials will be more volatile... at this point in time, i believe the there is 35% chance that the FAS, will retest its March 2009 low (around 4.00), sometime by the spring of 2014, and that

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-454977871106564572011-09-01T20:59:00.001-04:002011-09-01T20:59:27.388-04:00

Deja Vu All Over Again

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-55015927009531382552011-03-18T19:25:00.000-04:002011-03-18T19:25:00.618-04:00

Which traits predict success?

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-57819223506860191012011-02-15T21:02:00.005-05:002011-02-23T21:10:52.407-05:00

had a dream this morning that the s&p 500 was trading around 1400 and would soon break above long term resistance at around 1550.... during the dream i also recognized that breakouts of a well established range, with the current move coming from the bottom of the range, tend to fail...and even with this recognition, it felt as if the breakout would hold... interesting.... here's a link to a SPY

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-45870407206699594732011-02-10T23:37:00.006-05:002011-02-10T23:56:56.675-05:00

I believe PIMCO's Bill Gross provides a thoughtful analysis of the challenges that a developed nation like the US faces, in a global environment where developing nations are much more competitive than the developed ones. Bill's own summary of his article: "...The global economy is suffering from a lack of aggregate demand. With insufficient demand, nations compete furiously for

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-66568030518408639342011-02-07T00:24:00.000-05:002011-02-07T00:24:54.017-05:00

Is it really different this time? A cyclical perspective

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-81201833807985831522011-02-07T00:20:00.005-05:002011-02-17T19:46:37.302-05:00

I am starting to follow the financial markets again. I am no longer trading for a living or even trading to generate additional income. I continue to monitor and trade/invest my retirement assets. Currently helping to manage quality on the global order management systems for the second largest e-tailer on the web. I believe this company is a terrific organization that is constantly focusing on

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-65263491524117866832010-01-13T13:29:00.001-05:002010-01-13T13:29:26.751-05:00

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-85602875483668960262010-01-13T13:27:00.002-05:002010-01-13T13:27:18.736-05:00

Shutting the blog down for a period of time.

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-19343316394573020892010-01-13T11:34:00.000-05:002010-01-13T11:34:16.041-05:00

Thomas Friedman suggests that while China may have its problems, it is probably not the next Enron. This contrasts Jim Chanos' position.

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-13994342862832500962010-01-13T10:00:00.001-05:002010-01-13T10:00:03.564-05:00

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-52808736348028026242010-01-12T16:25:00.000-05:002010-01-12T16:25:21.610-05:00

what a frustrating market...the bid below the market remains strong... my 'BTD Index' model did not generate an entry signal at today's close...it was lined up to do so around midday, but the bulls fought back just enough into the close to negate the entry signal for this model (by a measly 3 points)... the NQ futures are up nearly 6 points from the 4 pm close too... frustration.... perhaps

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-4740972021282740662010-01-12T15:02:00.002-05:002010-01-12T15:02:51.113-05:00

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-2492701407036880892010-01-12T12:49:00.001-05:002010-01-12T13:01:00.567-05:00

major stock indices continue to selloff... a long entry signal for my 'BTD Index' systemic trading model has benn generated for today's close, though the signal could be canceled by the end of the day if the NDX puts in a strong enough intraday bounce... my strong stock watchlist continues to grow... ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...it is not a

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-11784037132701438042010-01-12T09:00:00.003-05:002010-01-12T09:03:11.411-05:00

Are the pre-market futures actually red this morning? Wow, I didn't think we would ever see this again. All kidding aside, I would welcome a selloff in the major market indices. This would enable me to get long the NQ for a discretionary swing trade to what I believe will be new swing highs. It would also give lots of strong stocks a chance to pullback, which would provide me an entry via some

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-65492198513510469002010-01-09T20:48:00.001-05:002010-01-09T21:02:01.802-05:00

While this article is 2 months old, it does point to some potential issues with China's economy. Jim Chanos: China Is Headed For A Huge Crash

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-60111214663261819582010-01-08T14:38:00.000-05:002010-01-08T14:38:00.327-05:00

I added two Velez Capital Management // Team Trading related blogs to the roll: Oliver Velez is a founder of Team Trading (where I am a prop equity and forex trader) and is a Trading Master. Legend's coaching blog. Legend is a trader at Team Trading, though I believe the coaching services he offers is not related to Team Trading...

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-41647144606032053842010-01-08T12:15:00.000-05:002010-01-08T12:15:51.668-05:00

as mvw has suggested, i think the odds of a momentum blow off high are increasing... some of the primary oscillators i look at are overbought, the major indices are trading toward the upper trend lines, and we are entering the traditionally weak mid january period, yet the the major indices continue to grind up... a dangerous market for both shorts and longs...

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-4264229911271364542010-01-07T12:36:00.001-05:002010-01-12T09:01:55.200-05:00

numerous studies i follow, including this one by quantifiable edges, suggests that seasonal weakness for january may begin tomorrow and last through friday the 26th... i am looking to reduce my longside exposure: when CERN and NBR broke out of their daily base on tuesday, i picked up some cheap out of the money calls on each of them...i just sold them for about a triple on CERN and a double on

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-55069086862602984132010-01-06T16:34:00.000-05:002010-01-06T16:34:15.342-05:00

Wall Street Journal Opinion: Why Taxing Stock Trades is a Really Bad Idea

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-60984588755739471412009-12-31T13:49:00.000-05:002009-12-31T13:49:06.608-05:00

QuantifiableEdges Best of 2009

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-80601967932398652382009-12-31T12:45:00.004-05:002010-01-07T05:26:18.911-05:00

Dr. Todd Hanson is the head of forex trading at Team Trading LLC. The following is a MoneyShow video of Todd giving an outline of the Team Trading Forex program and some of the trading strategies within the program: Todd Hanson: An Introduction to Mastering Forex

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-91085276181368016902009-12-31T11:27:00.004-05:002009-12-31T11:39:22.293-05:00

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-52254958826260721202009-12-30T14:02:00.002-05:002009-12-30T14:05:01.372-05:00

Oliver Velez is the founder of Team Trading, LLC, where I am a proprietary equity and forex trader. Here is a recent video where he describes an upcoming play in Alcoa (AA):

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-54988581948121567802009-12-30T13:42:00.000-05:002009-12-30T13:42:31.907-05:00

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-40898380227723516832009-12-24T09:31:00.001-05:002009-12-24T09:33:32.382-05:00

i follow a few 3rd party oscillators...on a variety of time frames from intraday to weekly, they are now showing overbought conditions...the NQ is also trading into upper trend channel resistance... though my 'XMany' model is on a buy signal, i decided to exit my current position into this morning's gap up... i will be looking to get back into the 'XMany' position if the NQ sells off or bases

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-47776091471692386522009-12-23T16:18:00.003-05:002009-12-23T19:25:00.901-05:00

ECRI: 'Recovery and Jobs Growth are Underway' "...the very literal near-term reading is that we have a recovery. It is not going to falter in the next few quarters, deflation is off the table, and we don’t have surging inflation in terms of consumer prices. For the time being, that’s not a bad position to be in..." -Lakshman Acuthan, 12/22/09

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-45246601521452326792009-12-23T06:56:00.000-05:002009-12-23T06:56:45.759-05:00

the financial transaction tax is getting some more play... my cpa, robert green, has updated his petition to congress to stop the tax... please contact your congressional reps to voice your opposition to this tax...

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-15604106303919229412009-12-22T10:45:00.007-05:002009-12-22T15:11:11.949-05:00

some of the major indices have finally broken out (to the upside) of the recent ranges: NQ and EMD... though some are still banging their heads at resistance: ES and TF... i believe ES and TF will follow the NQ and the EMD to the upside... this run could last until the first few days of january... my 'XMany' model gave a long entry signal last night for the NDX...this model is based on the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-74110385721883124862009-12-22T10:36:00.000-05:002009-12-22T12:38:11.014-05:00

David Brooks: The Protocol Society

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-35148993375168230572009-12-17T16:59:00.001-05:002009-12-17T17:00:04.346-05:00

well wednesday's FOMC rate announcement did not act as a catalyst to move the NQ and the ES above resistance...instead it led to selling on wednesday and on thursday... so the major indices remain mired in a narrow 6 week base... feels like the bulls want to get going for an end of year ramp, yet the bears keep beating the advances back... with the selloff in Citigroup today, the bank index

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-32026766970331196712009-12-15T10:56:00.005-05:002009-12-17T17:00:26.053-05:00

the NQ and the ES 'feel' like they want to break above their current resistance levels (NQH10 around 1815 and ESH10 around 1115)... with positive historical december opex week, and positive end of december seasonality, tomorrow's FOMC rate announcement at 2:15pm might be the catalyst to get the indices over these levels... if they do pop, i can envision them running up around 2-4%... however,

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-24972280773713962042009-12-13T12:29:00.000-05:002009-12-13T12:29:30.007-05:00

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-44593642277245766202009-12-11T14:08:00.004-05:002009-12-11T15:00:59.396-05:00

this one gets me pumped...

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-69994292889205863242009-12-11T13:44:00.001-05:002009-12-11T14:46:24.599-05:00

i was really moved by this performance, especially the end...art really belted it out...

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-88781426635984019652009-12-09T17:36:00.004-05:002009-12-09T19:16:30.263-05:00

My 'NDX OU' systemic trading model generated an entry signal for today's close. The NDX put in an outside upside day today. In other words, today's low was lower then yesterday's low, and today's close was higher then yesterday's high. There are two additional filters as well. The dynamic stop is currently set to 0.90%. If this stop is not hit, then this position is due to be exited on

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-13474942761121411732009-12-09T12:13:00.001-05:002009-12-09T12:14:31.166-05:00

i use a variety of indicators and oscillators to provide an edge in what direction to trade a discretionary swing position in the NQ....right now nearly all of the indicators/oscillators i look at are neutral... i have not been in a NQ discretionary swing position since the begining of thanksgiving week... i am proud of my patience... ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-13322767926989396602009-12-08T12:15:00.002-05:002009-12-08T12:15:54.127-05:00

David Brooks: An Innovation Agenda

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-46302708909671382752009-12-07T11:24:00.000-05:002009-12-07T11:24:05.458-05:00

ECRI: More frequent business cycles ahead

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-77699495757455952202009-11-30T16:26:00.001-05:002009-11-30T16:26:57.567-05:00

i have lost my feel for this market... in addition to getting out of my 'turkey long' position on thursday (which would have stopped out on friday), i got chopped up in 3 additional discretionary day/swing trades on friday/monday... i have little confidence in an up or a down move sticking... since i have such low confidence, i am going to be very picky in establishing any discretionary swing

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-42777444614957970422009-11-27T09:15:00.000-05:002009-11-27T09:15:49.318-05:00

the proposed financial transaction tax continues to get some play in congress...now, paul krugman has jumped on board too...some politicians want wall street to pay for main street's recovery, so they want to tax any purchase of a financial asset and any sale of a financial asset at 0.25%...this would be 0.50% per round trip...$500 tax per $100,000 round trip... this would put me and most of the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-15209881267058840952009-11-26T11:50:00.002-05:002009-11-26T22:08:49.469-05:00

Dubai Debt Fears Hammer Stocks Dubai's Move on Debt Rattles Markets Worldwide who wants to trade on thanksgiving day? in order to manage risk, i had to... the money managment stop for the NQZ09 on my 'Turkey Long' model is 1749.00...however this stop is only good for the regular trading sessions of wed and fri of thanksgiving week, and on the following monday's open... well, upon seeing the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-5115371918357021022009-11-25T15:31:00.001-05:002009-11-25T19:44:35.169-05:00

well its 3:15 on wednesday of thanksgiving week, and the major stock indices are green, with the mid caps (EMD) leading up around 1.00%, the small caps (TF) lagging up about 0.10%, ES up about 0.50% and the NQ up about 0.40%... the ES has been leading the charge lately, and continues to bang its head on the 1110ish resistance level, while the NQ made its high last wednesday around 1813 and is

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-18871433407151589432009-11-24T20:17:00.001-05:002009-11-24T20:20:44.647-05:00

first off, happy thanksgiving to all of my u.s based readers.... my 'Turkey Long' systemic trading model generated a long entry at today's close in the NDX... this model is based on the NDX historical trading behavior surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday... the model goes long on the close of tuesday of thanksgiving week, and if the money management stop is not hit, then the model exits the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-73790688808995188782009-11-19T15:28:00.004-05:002009-11-19T20:56:31.097-05:00

what a mess... my discretionary swing trading tendency to always be long at least 1 contract, especially near the top of the daily upper trend channel is costing me too much money... earlier in the week i even considered buying some puts on the QQQQ's to hedge my exposure, but i didn't... i have worked my avg price in the NQZ09 down from 1809.00 to 1781.50, though it cost me too much to do

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-38628960179266095212009-11-19T09:10:00.002-05:002009-11-19T09:12:48.275-05:00

i added a NQZ09 contract at 1791.50 during the premarket selloff... long 2 NQZ09 @ avg 1800.25/contract... i am recognizing that i have a tendency to nearly always have some long exposure to the NQ...i think this stems from a 'fear of missing' pyschological mindset that gets applied to my NQ discretionary swing trading...i also think its related to my belief that i can work my avg price down

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-39137974095842945802009-11-18T18:04:00.000-05:002009-11-18T18:04:38.358-05:00

Off Topic: Thomas Friedman's 'What they Really Believe'

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-83997607778880986042009-11-17T13:52:00.003-05:002009-11-17T21:15:31.159-05:00

yesterday morning, lunch and early afternoon looked like a trend day, so i moved my limit order up and got in at 1809.00... NQZ09 then ran up to a new high on the day, but sold off into the close... offering this contract out at 1828.50... bidding 1776.50 for one contract... lately, i have been putting in a lot of effort building my discretionary daytrading skills at team trading (fka velez

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-71966699486778859302009-11-15T20:06:00.001-05:002009-11-15T20:08:19.056-05:00

the NQZ09 offer i placed on wed 11/11 for 1797.50, was filled during tonights session... this trade: +18.75 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed... on the above chart, tradestation is not showing the trade history correctly...the chart reports i still have 1 open NQZ09 contract when in fact i am flat the NQZ09... currently bidding for 1 contract at 1753.50, just above the rising 200ma on the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-31011348773335367102009-11-11T16:14:00.008-05:002009-11-15T20:08:51.594-05:00

picked up a NQZ09 contract at 1778.75...i was not patient enough for my 1773.50 bid to be hit...the low of the swing was 1772.00 offering this contract out at 1797.50... bidding 1745 and 1717.50... added a newly built Narrow Range Bar systemic trading model for the NDX called 'Narrow Bar NDX #11'... this model is unique for me because its stop is extremely tight: 0.10% below the entry price..

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-74553490017049549572009-11-11T09:18:00.000-05:002009-11-11T09:18:20.045-05:00

with the ES gapping up to the 1100 resistance level during the pre-market, i sold my only NQZ09 contract at 1785.75...i was originally targeting 1796.50, but i think the ES and the NQ might stall for a bit or head down at the ES 1100 level... this trade: +19.25 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed... bidding at 1773.50, 1743.50 and 1717.50... ***remember this is an illustration of what i am

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-34137440173452202202009-11-10T16:08:00.001-05:002009-11-10T19:11:02.927-05:00

picked up 1 NQZ09 at 1766.50 during this morning's pullback... offering this contract out at 1796.50... i am working on holding my NQZ09 discretionary swing trading contracts for larger swings than i had been targeting while trading during the july through october period... bidding 1743.50 and 1717.50 for additional contracts... ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-7644478479548132792009-11-08T20:26:00.001-05:002009-11-08T20:28:02.893-05:00

sold my only NQZ09 contract at 1736.50 around 8:15pm during the sunday overnight session... this trade: +22.50 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed... bidding for 1 NQZ09 at each of the following levels: 1721.50, 1702.50, 1657.50... no offers at this time.. ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-23530130297204489822009-11-08T20:08:00.000-05:002009-11-08T21:08:53.400-05:00

From Brett Steenbarger's TraderFeed blog: Heart Rate Variability (HRV): Enhancing the Trader's Self Control

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-17186121921281009882009-11-06T09:44:00.001-05:002009-11-06T09:46:44.591-05:00

picked up 1 NQZ09 pre-market at 1714.00 offering this contract out at 1736.50... bidding 1696.50 and 1657.50 Disclosure: Long NQZ09. ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may change without notice...this is not a recommendation for you or anyone else, to buy or sell this or any other security...trade at your own risk***

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-13203226899754214462009-11-06T09:14:00.000-05:002009-11-06T09:14:02.982-05:00

Trader's Narrative Blog: End of Year Seasonality After 10% Gain Study: bullish implications for Nov 1 - Dec 31 2009

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-13668250233726851972009-11-05T16:51:00.002-05:002009-11-11T10:22:22.931-05:00

'BTD Index' generated an exit signal today, booking about 1 point loss... after 5 winning trades in a row since june, and 6 since 12/07, there was bound to be a loser...however, 1 point is nothing to worry about... the equity curve is essentially at its all time high... i trade this model with the NQ...i was supposed to wait until the 4pm close to exit this trade, but today i exited during

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-67407602028955924722009-11-05T16:16:00.001-05:002009-11-05T16:26:23.312-05:00

tone of the market felt very different today, it felt very bullish... on the heals of a bearish close yesterday, and without any major news catalysts, the NQ rallied up from an overnight low of 1670ish to a day session high of 1720ish, a 50 point spread... market sees a lot of buying ahead of the jobs report tomorrow morning pre-open... are the bulls coming back, or did the bears step away?

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-25124394752305817002009-11-05T10:52:00.003-05:002009-11-05T11:15:26.288-05:00

so much for my thought yesterday that the NQ would see a narrow range day with a downside bias today... now, with the ES trading up to the flat 200ma on the 60M chart, and the NQ trading up to the flat 200ma on the 60M chart, and just past the 10:30 rt, with the financials lagging and tomorrow's pre-open jobs report, i sold the last NQZ09 at 1718.25... this trade: +32.46 NQ points/contract, 1

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-34313688313186308502009-11-04T17:56:00.000-05:002009-11-04T17:56:20.456-05:00

my 'Halloween' model posted a long entry signal on the close of trading on wed 10/28/2009... this model is based on the historical bullish trading behavior of the NDX during the last few days of october thru the first few days of november... unfortunately, the model's money management stop was hit on monday 11/2/2009... the theoretical trade loss was 1.39%... since i was already long a bunch of

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-64902571692023337622009-11-04T17:42:00.001-05:002009-11-04T17:43:17.643-05:00

on monday 11/2/2009, 'SPY Gopher' generated an exit signal... the model's theoretical position posted a 2.41% loss, which is a bit greater than the average losing trade (1.79%)... the actual trade (ESZ09) posted a 1.54% loss...i exited a portion of the position early, which turned out to be favorable... this is the second loss for the model in a row... 'end of month/begining of month' weakness

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-77250251885031440022009-11-04T16:30:00.000-05:002009-11-04T22:30:10.868-05:00

adding this to my Research Project list: BDO: Breadth Divergence Osicllator by CSS Analytics check Andromeda and Pegasus systems on intraday timeframes for ES and NQ

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-14533484613640708862009-11-04T15:26:00.000-05:002009-11-04T15:26:54.488-05:00

i suspect tomorrow will be a narrow range day, with perhaps a downward bias as market participants await the friday jobs report... a re-analysis of where the NQZ09 is at, plus weak financials and weak small caps, led me to let go of the just added contract... sold 1 NQZ09 at 1695.75... this trade: +9.96 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed... today: 8.19 NQ points/contract, 2 contracts closed.

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-4689109879169919192009-11-04T14:48:00.002-05:002009-11-04T14:49:48.165-05:00

during the post FOMC flurry down, i picked up 1 NQZ09 at 1683.25...the low of that swing was 1682.25... now long 2 NQZ09 at avg 1685.79... resistance for the rest of the day is at the whole number 1700.00 offering 1 out at: 1707.50 and 1725.00 bidding for 1 at 1661.50... Disclosure: Long NQZ09. ***remember this is an illustration of what i am trading and my thinking...my trading plan may

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-80314320264915080982009-11-04T11:28:00.000-05:002009-11-04T11:28:39.859-05:00

heading into 10:30 rt, just below the 1700 whole number, and below the declining 200ma on the 15M chart, i lowered the NQZ09 1705 offer to market, and was filled at 1694.75... the high so far for the morning was 1700 even... this trade:  +6.42 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed... if i am going to hold multiple contracts on a move against me, i have to get better at holding multiple contracts

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-83313918418350345132009-11-03T13:40:00.002-05:002009-11-03T20:19:43.802-05:00

yesterday morning, i sold 1 NQZ09 at 1683.50... that trade: -4.87 NQ points/contract, 1 contract closed... offering 1 contract at: 1705.00 and 1725.00 no bids.... long 2 NQZ09 at avg 1688.33... not sure if the NQ and the ES need to selloff more before a more sustained rally... not sure if that rally will take the NQ and the ES to new swing highs... i am uncertain as to the probable near term

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-24562891929940315462009-11-02T09:43:00.000-05:002009-11-02T09:43:59.159-05:00

thursday's rally helped me lighten up on the NQZ09 discretionary swing position... i sold another NQZ09 contract on friday morning pre-open at 1706... this trade: -22 NQ points/contract... i added another contract during friday's day session at 1683.50... i also added another contract during sunday's overnight session just above the session low, at 1653.50... i am now long 3 NQZ09 at avg

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2350512571914065876.post-17649660742217067302009-10-29T09:11:00.000-04:002009-10-29T09:11:45.330-04:00

i am using this morning's rally to lighten up the NQZ09 discretionary swing position... the losses are painful, but capital preservation is a must... i still envision new swing highs in the NQ and the ES perhaps by the end of 2009, and an even higher liklihood by the end of Q1 2010... however, due to the persistent downtrend of the past 4 days, the intermediate term may have changed... at the

Adam Berkowitznoreply@blogger.com0